Nothing's wrong with Alex Smith, and that's a sobering fact for Skins
What's wrong with Alex Smith? Well, here's the sobering answer: Nothing, really. He will get more comfortable in his new offense. He can be more accurate and efficient. Accessorize the quarterback with better weapons, and he will look snazzier. Still, even in a season that is starting to adhere to Murphy's Law, Alex Smith is basically Alex Smith right now.
He's halfway through a season that makes many miss Kirk Cousins and others — desperate, extreme others — call for backup Colt McCoy. But in the context of his career, Smith is as ordinary as usual. Despite leading a passing game that ranks 24th of 32 NFL teams, Smith is on pace to throw for 3,734 yards, which would be his second highest total of his 13 pro seasons. He is completing 63.5 percent of his passes, and that is lower than his accuracy rate during five seasons in Kansas City but a hair higher than his career percentage. With just three interceptions so far, he is on pace to throw fewer than 10 picks for a remarkable eighth consecutive year, but he also could finish with fewer than 20 touchdown passes for the ninth time in 13 seasons.
Consider his track record. Consider that, so far, this is one of his more successful transitions to a new coach or new team. And then consider how unimpressive it all seems in the moment. Smith is under contract for four more seasons after this one, with a contract extension about to kick in that will guarantee him $71 million. Washington didn't purchase a savior, and it understood that at the time. It bought the most expensive base layer of clothing in the NFL.
Get used to it. With offensive starters succumbing to injury all over the place, the inclination is to think Smith needs to step up if his team is to repeat its 5-3 record in the season's second half and make the playoffs. But there is no step up in Smith, not in the way that some people are thinking.
He's just going to try to stay steady and manage the game. He can help the offense control a game with good decisions and by protecting the football, but it's not enough that Smith will win games. If Washington has playoff talent, he can reflect that. If Washington is a one-dimensional squad that can't sustain its early success, Smith won't be able to stop the downfall.
This was the alternative to making a big money offer that Cousins probably wouldn't have accepted. It should be evident now just how much more dynamic of a passer Cousins is, but Washington was willing to sacrifice that for certainty and for a quarterback who wanted to take somewhat reasonable money to be here.
Smith's $94 million extension averages to $23.5 million per season, if he can earn all the non-guaranteed parts of the deal. That ranks ninth among quarterbacks in the NFL. Smith is not a great player, but he's not making the $84 million fully guaranteed that Cousins received from Minnesota. He's not a quarterback you build around; instead, you build on top of him. Washington believes it can do this over time.
But right now, it looks ugly. The wide receiving corps lacks sufficient talent, and now the group is injured. The running back position is dramatically different than planned, and now the team is heavily dependent on 33-year-old Adrian Peterson. And, oh, the offensive line is in shambles because of injury. When the offense was healthier, Smith wasn't thriving. Now, he's in a fight to survive.
Coach Jay Gruden insists Smith has improved, but he failed to reach 200 yards in three of the past four games. And even though he threw for 306 yards last Sunday against Atlanta, the performance REDSKINS @ BUCS
TV: Radio: Line: was mediocre, and those stats were inflated because the team was playing from behind for most of the game.
Smith is the ultimate test of this franchise's team-building acumen. It seems like the front office has gradually improved in this area during Gruden's five seasons. It seems like the team finally has an imposing defensive front, and when healthy, the offensive line has been solid. But as I keep harping on, the focus on that weakness has come at the expense of retaining playmakers or finding new ones. So this has gone from a pass-happy team full of offensive toys to a tougher, more physical outfit that now must find some new toys.
The good news is that the franchise is set up, from a roster standpoint, to focus heavily on improving the offense moving forward. But here's the problem: It could lose a chance at the playoffs in the meantime. And if this team doesn't make the playoffs, there are many other issues to consider, including the futures of Gruden and Bruce Allen, the team president.
He's just playing his game, really. You can't like what you've seen thus far, but again, he's just supposed to be a base layer. Where's the rest of this offense? He'll be fine if Washington makes the situation fine. But now you should understand why, for all the victories his teams have amassed, San Francisco and Kansas City both moved on to younger quarterbacks with higher upsides.
Washington traded for Smith and extended him after he was coming off a career year. But as Patrick Mahomes has shown in Kansas City this season, there's even more that a quarterback can do with all the offensive talent the Chiefs have. Smith contributed to his old team becoming an offensive juggernaut. The difference, however, is that Mahomes can accentuate all of Kansas City's strengths.
With his new team, Smith inches toward better.
“I do think definitely from looking back to the start of the season, where we are, just the things we've been through situationally, I think that we have grown a ton in a good way,” he said. “But like I said, week to week the highs and lows are so big. I think you do the best you cannot to ride that roller coaster so to speak, try not to. Try to come in even-keeled — go about your business every day — continue working for that end goal obviously with the focus weekly on winning.”
That's the best thing about Smith. He won't give up. He will get better. He won't turn great, however. But if Washington builds properly, there's a chance he could manage a great team.
The Redskins are on the clock to accessorize his stability and show why a basic, dependable quarterback was worth the expense.