Jackson’s worth to team coming into question
Watson, Mahomes offer glimpse at financial future
Lamar Jackson will stare at two possible versions of his financial future over the next twoweekends as the Ravens play theHouston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs.
DeshaunWatson of the Texans and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs were the last two quarterbacks to sign gargantuan contract extensions and as such, they provide a glimpse of the context in which Jackson and the Ravens will negotiate an extension, perhaps as soon as next offseason.
The 23-year-old Jackson has said he’s focused on winning a Super Bowl, notswelling his bank account or keeping economic pace with his peers at the most scrutinized position in American sports. But the approach he and the Ravens take to negotiations will have an outsized impact on the future of the franchise.
There are many questions at play:
Will Jackson seek long-term security, as Mahomes did with his 10-year, $450 million extension, or will he take theWatson approach and attempt to maximize his earning power through a series of shorter extensions?
■ Will the Ravens move aggressively to reach an extension with Jackson after his third season in hopes of avoiding the path of the
Dallas Cowboys, who ended up using their franchise tag on quarterbackDak Prescott? ■ Will a Jackson extension, likely to surpass $40million in annual value, make it harder for the Ravens to do business with other young stars such as left tackle Ronnie Stanley, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, outside linebacker Matthew Judon and tight endMark Andrews?
A trio of salary cap experts — a former NFL general manager, a former agent and ananalyst at ProFootballFocus— agreedon one point: The Ravens have little choice but to keep up with the escalating quarterback market and build their roster around Jackson.
“You have the quarterback and then everything else is essentially a replaceable part,” said Mike Tannenbaum, an ESPN
analyst and former executive vice president of football operations for the Miami Dolphins. “More of the money is going to less of the players, and that’sOK, because youhave Lamar Jackson.”
Teams spend decades searching for a franchise quarterback, the one cheat code in their quest for perennialNFLcontention. Asa result, stars at the position rarely hit the open market in their primes. There’s an understanding that each time a player such as Watson, Mahomes or Jackson approaches extension time, he will set a record for annual compensation.
“If you’re a top NFL quarterback at the age of 26 and you come up for a new deal, you’re going to ask for No. 1 quarterback money, because you probably should get it,” said Brad Spielberger, who writes about NFL economics for Pro Football Focus. “Lamar Jackson, if he keeps playing how he’s playing, there’s no reason he should not try to top DeshaunWatson. People can try to sit back and nitpick whether he’s a top-five QB, but it doesn’t matter. That’s howthe marketworks.”
This does not mean all franchise quarterbacks take the same approach.
Mahomes’ deal generated more animated headlines because of its total value, which could exceed $500 million with incentives. But from an agent’s point of view, Mahomes left money on the table by giving the Chiefs long-term control over his earnings. Watson will make just as much new money asMahomes over the course of his four-year, $156 million extension, and then he’ll have a chance to negotiate another extension in a market featuring even greater quarterback salaries.
This supposes Watson will stay healthy and maintain superstar production, but his earning ceiling is higher.
Former agent andCBS Sports writer Joel Corry expects Jackson to useWatson’s deal, or perhaps the extension Prescott will likely sign with the Cowboys, as a jumping-off point for his negotiations with the Ravens.
“I’d call theMahomes deal an anomaly,” he said. “I suspectWatson is going to make significantlymoremoneyover the course of his career thanMahomes. … If I’m Lamar, I throw the Mahomes deal out of the window.”
The Ravens, on the other hand, would benefit from a longer extension, shocking sticker price be damned. There’s a significant benefit to establishing a long-term fixed cost ina market that keeps rising, even as teams face the possibility of a salary-cap reduction because of the coronavirus pandemic.
“Every team would love to sign its star quarterback for a decade,” Spielberger said.