Ravens know they need to keep winning
To qualify for playoffs, Ravens also need others to suffer timely losses
All the Ravens wanted for Christmas was to not have toworry about anyone else.
But after a thirdstraight win Sunday raised hopes of a straightforward path to the postseason, the rest ofWeek 15 landed like a lump of coal.
“It seems like we need help from a lot of teams,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey said Wednesday, “but I’m not really sure exactly what teams.”
As the Ravens (9-5) push for their third straight playoff appearance, they find themselves in a strange position, having only so much control over whether their season will continue pastWeek17.
In 2018, the Ravens enteredWeek 16 in the sixth and final spot in the AFC’s six-team field. In 2019, they entered Week 16 having already clinched the AFCNorth title.
Now, not even a victory Sunday against the
New York Giants (5-9) may set up a win-and-they’re-in scenario. The eighthplace Ravens are on the outside looking in, and little could change byWeek17. They’ll need outside assistance. “Some teams are trying to get in,” quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “Some teams are already in but still trying to fight to keep their position. Andright nowwe’re in the hunt, but we’re out of the playoffs, so each and every week is a playoffweek for us. “That’s the mindsetwe’ve got to have.” Before their season opener, coach John Harbaugh had jokingly asked, “Is anything normal in 2020?” How appropriate, then, that in the first year of the NFL’s expanded, 14-team playoff field, an 11-5 record might not be enough for the Ravens. Not since the 2008 New England Patriots has a team won 11 games and missed the playoffs.
For now, all the Ravens can do is try to turn a three-game winning streak into a fourgame streak, then a four-game streak into a five-game streak. After Sunday’s regularseason home finale against the Giants, the Ravens will face the Bengals (3-10-1) in Cincinnati inWeek17.
Whether they’ll play again this season is impossible to know. Mathematically, it’s pretty likely: According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, the Ravens enter Week 16 with 86% odds of advancing to the postseason. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them an 84.3% chance, almost double the likelihood of a wild-card-round victory (44.2%).
The Ravens can’t be picky about where help comes from, but there is an obvious candidate. The Dolphins have only a tenuous grasp on the AFC’s seventh seed. With matching 9-5 records, Miami’s tiebreaker— a superior winning percentage in conference play (.600-.545) — is keeping the Ravens out of the playoff field.
Thatwon’t matter if the Dolphins stumble to the finish. TheRavens’nexttwoopponents have a combined eight wins this season. Miami has road games left against the Las
Vegas Raiders (7-7) on Saturday — a team whose playoff hopes still exist, if only mathematically — and the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (11-3) inWeek17.
With the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) likely to secure the conference’s only bye, it’s unclear whether the Bills would rest any starters as they jockey for seeding.
If the Ravens win out, theywouldn’t need much to secure their third straight postseason appearance: just one loss from a six-game sample.
There’s the Dolphins and their difficult slate. The Indianapolis Colts (10-4), who would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Ravens, face the Steelers (11-3) in Pittsburghandhost the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13) inWeek 17. And the Cleveland Browns
(10-4), whom the Ravens swept, have a road game against theNewYork Jets (1-13) before a home date with the Steelers.
If theRavens’ wild-card competition goes a combined 6-0 — ESPN gives the three teams a 1% chance of posting a perfect record— there’s a final long-shot hope: Have the Tennessee Titans (10-4), who beat the Ravens inWeek 11, lose back-to-back games to the Green Bay Packers (11-3) andHouston Texans (4-10).
“Of course, we want to get into the playoffs,” Harbaugh said Monday. “So we knowthatwe need some help, but the focus is going to be on taking care of our business. It doesn’t matter what anybody else does if we don’t take careof our job, andour job is to win.”
ARavens loss Sundaywouldn’t necessarily be fatal. If the Dolphins lose one of their two final games, the Ravens would need only to beat the Bengals to surpass Miami, thanks to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker.
A Ravens win Sunday and defeat in Cincinnati, however, would ask a lotmore of teams they can’t exactly trust. Unless the Browns, Colts or Dolphins lost twice, 10 winswouldn’t get the Ravens in.
“My mentality is just attack each day individually and understand that we can only take them one game at a time,” left tackle OrlandoBrownJr. said. “Sorightnow, my focus isonthe Giantsandgoing out there and playing the best game ofmy career, just like I try to approach it everyweek.
“Long term, we understand the playoffs are there and getting there is important, but it’s important thatwewinthenextgameand the next game and the next game.”
But if winning isn’t enough, what then? Brownwas asked howmuch he knew about the help the Ravens might need. He shook his head.
“To be honest, man, I don’t really know much,” he said. “I don’t have much for you there.”