Anne Arundel should postpone a return to classes until the surge eases, vaccine arrives

Everyone wants students to return to classrooms. But it is unavoidable that the coronaviruspandemicis surging just as the target date for that goal is about to arrive.

So on Thursday, the Anne Arundel County Board of Education will take up the matter of reopening.

There really is no choice. With the current coronavirus surge expected to continue through January, and the rollout of vaccinations incredibly slow, the board must follow the recommendation offered last week by the county health officer and push the date from February toMarch.

Some parents will howl about this. It is not helpful for lots of students and may be harmful to some students’ development. But remote learning is the safest path forward, and a majority of parents recognize that.

Remote learning will not put teachers, who as adults have a greater risk of severe symptoms withCOVID- 19, in harm’sway.

Dr. Nilesh Kalyanaraman laid it out clearly in his report to the board. The situation has only gottenworse since then.

Thecase rate, thenumberof cases in the county per 100,000 people, averaged over sevendays, was above 50whenhe spoke. It was the highest case rate since state and county officials started tracking in March andwas a figure unimaginable last spring.

Monday, the county reported 63.4 infections per 100,000 people Monday. Statewide data, updated throughSunday, shows the coronavirus is spreading in Anne Arundel County more widely than in two- thirds of other Maryland jurisdictions.

Anne Arundel surpassed Frederick as the county with the worst rate of coronavirus spread among the eight Maryland jurisdictions with the most residents.

Just to keep this in perspective, when last the board considered moving to a hybrid plan that would have students rotating through classroom buildings to keep the crowd sizes down, the numbers were around 10. The board decided that was too much risk.

Hospitalizations are expected to peak in late January and early February. Hospitals typically operate at about 75% capacity but are currently above 80%.

If that doesn’t sound too bad, remember that hospitals are managing their capacity through extraordinary means. They’re actively converting spaces such as operating rooms for COVID- 19 treatment to keep their capacity lowenough so they can continue to accept patients.

The alternative is a health care nightmare, with hospitals overflowing.

Perhaps just as important, the waiting untilMarchmight get schools past another critical point— the start of vaccinations for teachers and staff members. Revised CDC recommendations late last month put teachers higher on the list for vaccinations. Thatnowcouldhappenlater thismonthor early in February.

There are lots of comments now that most people don’t die from COVID- 19. That’s true. They’ll tell you hospitals can handle a big surge caused by an illness sweeping the population. Also true.

But how willing are members of the school board to increase the risk of getting some of their employees or families of students sick? COVID- 19 can have longlasting impacts and can be fatal.

How willing are school board members to ignore the warnings of public health officials that it’s best to wait? Are they willing to bet lives on their understanding of hospitality management and public health?

This is not optimal. But the right course of action is clear.

Members of the school board should vote to postpone a return to classrooms until it is safe.