Space alliance hurt by Earth events
US-Russia affairs in orbit entangled by conflict, politics
When Russia’s military blasted an old satellite to smithereens last month with an antisatellite missile, U.S. officials reacted angrily, warning that thousands of tiny pieces of new orbital debris could endanger astronauts on the International Space Station.
Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, seemed to share some of that frustration.
“No, I don’t like it,” Rogozin, who initially downplayed the threat of the debris, said in a recent interview.
He noted his concern “that there is a lot of debris scattered across the orbit.”
While the danger to the space station’s astronauts has waned, the diplomatic impact of Russia’s military action in orbit looms large.
The Nov. 15 weapon test prompted a rare intersection of two components of bilateral ties between the U.S. and Russia: on the one hand, the bravado and provocations that define their testy military relationship; on the other, long-standing amity between NASA and the Russian space agency.
For two decades, the space station has been a symbol of diplomatic triumph between the U.S. and Russia, typically insulated from tensions on Earth. Russian astronauts traveled to orbit on the space shuttle, and when it stopped flying, the Russian Soyuz spacecraft became NASA’s only ride to orbit for nearly a decade.
The station also requires the two space powers’ cooperation to function. The Russian segment depends on electricity generated by U.S. solar panels, while the station as a whole depends on Russian equipment to control its orbit.
But now, the antisatellite test, as well as mounting tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine and other matters, are complicating the decades-old friendship between NASA and Roscosmos. As the two agencies try to secure a pair of agreements that would sustain their relationship for years to come, they are finding that affairs in orbit cannot avoid being linked to conflict on the ground.
The agreements have been in the works for years. One would allow Russian astronauts to fly on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule for trips to the space station, in exchange for seats on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft for American astronauts.
The other would cement the NASA-Roscosmos space station alliance through 2030.
Both agreements require sign-off from officials in the White House whose chief concern is defusing military conflict with Russia over Ukraine. They must also go through the U.S. State Department, where officials are mulling options to deter Russia from launching antisatellite weapons in the future. Agreements to further space cooperation are becoming entangled with reactions to these other matters.
“I hope this project will not be politicized,” Rogozin said of the agreements, “but you can never be sure.”
Rogozin seemed to acknowledge that the future of the space relationship is in the hands of the nations’ leaders.
“In the sense of getting this program approved,” he said, “Roscosmos has full trust in the Russian president and the Russian government.”
On Thursday, President Joe Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin spoke by phone amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine.
Rogozin, a former deputy prime minister who oversaw Russia’s arms industry, has direct experience with the fractious side of the U.S.-Russia relationship. The U.S. sanctioned him personally in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. That has precluded him from entering the United States and complicated his ability to meet with his American counterparts.
Bill Nelson, the former senator from Florida serving as NASA administrator under President Joe Biden, called Russia’s missile test “pitiful” at the time.
But he softened his tone during later talks with Rogozin, voicing concerns about the new cloud of space debris but assuming his counterpart did not know in advance that Russia’s military would launch the antisatellite test.
Nelson said in an interview that he thinks Rogozin “is between a rock and a hard place, because there’s only so much that he can say” about the weapon test.
“He’s had to be quite demure, which I understand completely,” Nelson added.
The day before the test, a delegation of senior NASA officials, including the agency’s associate administrator, Bob Cabana, flew to Moscow for face-to-face negotiations with their Russian counterparts. Through days of meetings after the test, and over dinner with Rogozin, they affirmed their desire to lock in the agreement to barter astronaut flights and extend the space station partnership beyond 2024 through 2030.
“We have an intent to do both of those. We didn’t sign any agreements, but it was a very productive discussion,” said Cabana, who was dispatched to Moscow for the talks in part because he is well known to Russian space officials as a former NASA astronaut.
Rogozin gave NASA no hint that the test was coming. He said during the recent interview that the Ministry of Defense did not consult Roscosmos beforehand, which he chalked up to the Russian military having its own space-tracking capabilities to determine whether the missile strike would endanger the space station.
But he added: “I’m not going to tell you everything I know.”
With tensions over the weapon test looming, Rogozin announced earlier this month that Anna Kikina, the only woman in Russia’s astronaut corps, would be the first Russian under the agreement to fly in SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule next fall.
Kikina and other Russian astronauts have already visited sites in the U.S. for training while the negotiations continue, he said.
Ultimately, though, Rogozin said Roscosmos could not agree to an extension of Russia’s presence on the space station unless the U.S. removes sanctions on two Russian companies added to a U.S. blacklist last year because of their suspected military ties. The sanctions, he says, prevent Russia from building parts needed to allow the space station to survive through 2030.
“There really is no politics behind what I’m saying,” Rogozin said. “In order to give us a technical capability to produce whatever is needed for this extension, these restrictions need to be lifted first.”
Nelson of NASA says he has talked to the White House about the agreements to swap astronaut seats with the Russians and extend the space station. With the antisatellite test and other geopolitical tensions in the foreground, he indicated little progress had been made in getting the deals approved.
“All of this is to be determined,” he said.