Flexing some muscle
With Mountcastle at first, other infielders might offer options
Orioles pitchers and catchers will report to Sarasota, Florida, this week, marking the official start to spring training after a tumultuous offseason. At times, the drama of the team’s ownership situation, expiring lease and measured offseason approach has overshadowed the first season in half a decade the Orioles begin the year with a playoff berth seen as a legitimate possibility. A mix of a core that has weathered the organization’s rebuild, a wave of young talent that’s the product of it and veteran additions have the club believing it can reach the postseason after unexpectedly being the best American League team to fall short in 2022. On the verge of the Orioles’ first post-rebuild season, The Baltimore Sun is breaking down the roster position by position, examining the biggest questions at each spot and who could help carry the team to the postseason, in 2023 and beyond. The players due to report Wednesday — starting pitchers, relievers and catchers — have already had their turns. Now, eyes turn to an infield competition that could be heated throughout camp and deep into the season.
Opening day candidates
Assuming health, the Orioles have five players who will arrive at camp seemingly assured a roster spot. Ryan Mountcastle will be the everyday first baseman, with top overall prospect Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías and Adam Frazier deployed in the other three spots based on matchups and needs for rest.
That quartet will offer manager Brandon Hyde plenty of flexibility. Henderson and Frazier hit left-handed, and Mateo and Urías bat from the right side. Ideally, Baltimore will have two options at each of the three spots, with Urías and Frazier at second, Mateo and Henderson at shortstop, and Henderson and Urías at third base; Urías could play short in a pinch, while Frazier — whose $8 million free-agent deal makes him Baltimore’s highest-paid position player other than Chris Davis in Hyde’s five seasons — might make occasional outfield appearances. Beyond the likelihood Henderson is in the lineup most days, it’s not yet clear how the Orioles plan to manage this rotation, and spring training could help sort that out.
In terms of roster spots, the biggest non-pitching competition in camp will be finding out who gets to serve as Mountcastle’s left-handed complement at first base. Excluding players who are regulars elsewhere such as switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander, the only player already on the 40-man roster who could fit is Terrin Vavra, a natural second baseman who has never played first
as a professional but has spent his offseason practicing “everywhere” with hopes his mix of versatility and plate discipline keep him on the big league roster.
Ryan O’Hearn, Lewin Díaz, Franchy Cordero and Josh Lester give the Orioles several candidates among their nonroster invitees, as well. With left-hander John Means likely to open the season on the 60-day injured list as he finishes his rehab from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery and Rule 5 draft pick Andrew Politi having a tough path to the opening day roster, opening a 40-man spot for any of these players won’t be difficult.
Biggest question
When, if ever, is the youth movement?
Last season, even as Rougned Odor’s bat slumped, Hyde stuck with him as Baltimore’s regular second baseman, citing his veteran presence, clutch hitting and ability to turn double plays.
The Orioles could be pressured to choose between youth and experience often when it comes to their 2023 infield. Urías was the American League’s Gold Glove winner at third base. Mateo was perhaps baseball’s best defensive shortstop. Frazier has long rated positively for his work at second. But with a trio of top infield prospects all ending last season at Triple-A, it’s fair to wonder how much leash each player has if the bat doesn’t match the glove.
Given the aggressiveness the Orioles were expected to show this offseason, it’s somewhat of a surprise that Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby all remain in the organization. With Baltimore’s infield depth, parting with any of the three in a trade for a top starting pitcher would have been logical, but it seems each could get the chance to showcase what he can do in the majors in 2023. Ortiz’s place on the 40-man roster could help him beat Westburg, who has the most Triple-A time of the group, and Norby to the majors. Regardless of order, the timing of their arrivals could have as much to do with the performances of Mateo, Urías and Frazier as their own.
X-factor
After not even being invited to big league camp last year, Henderson enters this spring as the sport’s top prospect and practically guaranteed a spot high in the Orioles’ opening day lineup after forcing his way to the majors late last year.
Projection systems are understandably enamored with Rutschman, forecasting Henderson’s predecessor as the game’s No. 1 prospect to be one of baseball’s most valuable players in his first full season.
But they’ve given Henderson love, as well. ZiPS has the 21-year-old as one of only 21 players predicted to be worth five wins above replacement this season; that’s seventh among third basemen and tied for fifth among shortstops, trailing only Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien.
Henderson doesn’t need to deliver on that status to have a positive impact on the Orioles, but that level of performance being projected from a player who is technically still a rookie speaks to how influential he can be in the Orioles’ playoff hopes.
The future
Much of it could be displayed by the end of this season, with Mountcastle — not yet arbitration eligible — and Henderson maintaining their spots on the corners with Westburg, Ortiz and Norby arriving to help up the middle. But there’s even more infield talent on the way.
Shortstop Jackson Holliday, the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, will begin his first full professional season as a nonroster invitee to major league camp.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him give the Orioles their third straight No. 1 overall prospect next year and likewise echo Henderson’s meteoric rise to the majors.
Third baseman Coby Mayo once told an Orioles scout he hoped to be in the majors at 21, and reaching Baltimore this year would match that timeline.
Speaking at a fan Q&A last week, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said Mayo, who ended last year at Double-A, could see time at first base or the outfield to create space for his powerful bat on the major league roster.
The Orioles’ international pipeline has also paid off here.
A Cuban native signed in 2022, César Prieto remains on track to be the first product of Baltimore’s increased investment to reach the majors.
Luis Ayden Almeyda signed with the Orioles last month for $2.3 million, a franchise record for a Latin American amateur. Frederick Bencosme didn’t receive a big bonus when he signed in August 2020, but he starred at Low-A Delmarva last year and is a fast riser up the system’s prospect rankings.