Great expectations
Burnes will be the tide that raises all ships in Baltimore’s rotation
SARASOTA, Fla. — Nothing against bullpens, base running, fielding drills and batting practice, but the real fun has only recently begun.
The Orioles played their Grapefruit League opener Saturday at Ed Smith Stadium — their first of 32 contests this spring. The initial 10 days of spring training were used for ramping up to prepare for games and for the Orioles’ brass to meet with players and discuss their roles, and now almost every day will feature a game somewhere on Florida’s Suncoast.
Here are seven things we’ve learned so far.
Corbin Burnes is as advertised:
The results of new ace Corbin Burnes’ spring training outings don’t matter. The fact that he threw a scoreless inning with two strikeouts in his Orioles (exhibition) debut Saturday in a game aired on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network was just a cherry on top.
Whether the Burnes trade ends up being a good deal remains to be seen.
The right-hander has to pitch like an ace in 2024 to make it worth giving up prospects DL
Hall and Joey Ortiz, although adding a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher was general manager Mike Elias’ top priority this offseason.
But Burnes has carried himself thus far as an ace is expected to. His teammates are thrilled to have him, and the fellow members in the rotation speak highly of the former National League Cy Young Award winner and his process.
Left-hander Cole Irvin said Burnes is going to “raise the bar” for what is expected out of the Orioles’ starting pitchers.
The club’s hope is Burnes also raises their ceiling.
Kyle Bradish and John Means’ absences will be felt …:
Kyle Bradish’s elbow injury was a haymaker to open spring training. The news that John Means would also likely open the season on the injured list was just a kick while they were down.
Bradish, the club’s best starting pitcher in 2023, having an injured ulnar collateral ligament was about the worst news that could be revealed on the first day of spring training. The 27-yearold right-hander was expected to team up with Burnes for one of the American League’s best one-two punches atop a rotation.
There’s no way to know how long Bradish will be out because of the nature of UCL injuries — the ligament that requires surgery if torn — and the lengthy recovery they typically require. He had platelet-rich plasma injections in January to help speed up his recovery and he began throwing about 10 days ago. Elias also didn’t say which grade Bradish’s UCL sprain — technically a partial tear — is, adding uncertainty about his return.
Means is only one month behind, but it’s just the latest in a series of setbacks or elbow concerns for the veteran left-hander. Manager Brandon Hyde said the “rough draft” for a Means return if all goes well is sometime in April.
Until they both return, though, the Orioles’ rotation is in a worse state than expected.
… but the Orioles should have the depth to get by:
With Bradish and Means out, Baltimore has two capable big league starting pitchers to fill in.
Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin are no slouches. The former was one of the AL’s best starting pitchers in the first half last season, while Irvin has two seasons of approximately 180 innings under his belt from his days with the Oakland Athletics and looked extremely sharp in his spring debut on Sunday with three strikeouts and a tick up in his velocity in two innings.
No matter the level or role, Wells gets outs. He did so in the minors before Tommy John surgery. He did so as a reliever and closer for the Orioles in 2021 when he was a Rule 5 draft pick. He did so in 2022 as a starter before getting hurt and again in 2023 before running out of gas in the second half. If Wells pitches the way he did in the first half for a full season, he won’t just fill in as a starting pitcher, he would be one the entire season and likely the second or third best in the rotation.
Irvin, meanwhile, had a down 2023 season compared with his previous two years in Oakland. But a deeper look reveals he was more effective than his overall numbers show. After his poor first three starts in Baltimore that led to his demotion, he returned in June and posted a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in a hybrid role.
A rotation of Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Wells and Irvin might not be as dominant as it would be if Bradish and Means were healthy, but it’s still good enough to at least bridge the gap until they return.
Will Jackson Holliday make the opening day roster? Will he play well immediately in the majors? Will he compete for AL Rookie of the Year the way Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman did before him?
Who knows.
What is known, though, is that the big leagues aren’t too big for Holliday. The 20-year-old doesn’t act like one — a credit to his elite skill set, work ethic and upbringing as seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday’s elder son.
Hyde and Holliday’s teammates are impressed by how polished he seems entering just his second full professional season. He still has polishing to do as a player, especially defensively at second base. But when he reaches the majors, the lights won’t be too bright for him.
Jackson Holliday isn’t fazed: Jorge Mateo isn’t going anywhere — and Kyle Stowers might be back:
The offseason is time for wild dreams for fans, writing out lineups and 26-man rosters on coffee shop napkins. Leaving Jorge Mateo off those rosters is OK in December. It’s less so in February. Hyde said Mateo could be an “X-factor” for the Orioles if the speedster is able to play positions other than shortstop — second base, center field and left field.
Mateo struggled mightily at the plate after April last season, but Hyde values his glove and speed. It’s far from a guarantee Mateo makes the roster, but he should be seen as having an inside track to a spot.
On the flip side, outfielder Kyle Stowers made an early push during live batting practice to reclaim his spot in the majors.
Stowers made his debut in 2022, spent the last few months of the season playing part time and broke camp with the Orioles last spring. While 2023 was the “most challenging year” of Stowers’ career, he’s back in camp competing for one of the open spots on Baltimore’s bench. He’s racked up multiple hits off left-handers during live batting practice and has overall looked good at the plate.
After Elias announced Bradish’s injury and Means’ delayed timeline, some fans hoped the club’s top executive would feverishly hop on his phone, make some calls and trade for another starter or sign one of the many arms still available on the free agent market. That was and remains unlikely, but that doesn’t mean Elias wasn’t busy over the first week of spring training. Elias acquired three players for cash considerations in the span of six days and also claimed a player off waivers.
The moves resulted in left-handed reliever Matt Krook and right-handed reliever Kaleb Ort added to the 40-man roster and Diego Castillo passed through waivers and outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk.
Before spring training, Elias compiled position player depth to supplement a roster that is one of the deepest in the AL — adding infielders Nick Maton and Tyler Nevin and outfielder Sam Hilliard.
The season is a long one, and while these players aren’t favorites to break camp in the majors, it’s likely at least a few of them will play for the Orioles at some point in 2024.
Mike Elias sees value in roster depth:
The Orioles still have something to prove:
The Orioles won 101 games last year because of a combination of young stars, rebuild survivors, veterans and castoffs. They were doubted entering the season and proved those people wrong. It’s a new year with fewer doubters, but that doesn’t mean the club’s identity has to change. The roster is still filled with the same youngsters, rebuild survivors and ex-castoffs, while new veterans — Burnes and closer Craig Kimbrel — are in the building.
The sweep in the AL Division Series is something most players said took them weeks to get over, and they’re eager to show there’s more in the tank of this plucky team to have the 2024 campaign end better than the last one did.