GOP has solid shot at winning Senate

WASHINGTON — With President Barack Obama’s approval rating hovering below 50 percent and a large number of Senate Democrats running in conservative states, analysts say that Republicans will not only hold the House in November but also might win the six seats needed to seize control of the Senate.

Although national Democrats are working feverishly to fine-tune their voter-turnout effort, surveys show Democratic Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mark Begich of Alaska and Mark Udall of Colorado are in difficult re-election fights.

In addition, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, RKy., whose seat appeared endangered a few months ago, has rebounded to take a consistent lead against his wellfinanced Democratic challenger, Alison Lundgren Grimes.

Unlike in presidential elections, in which Ohio often decides the outcome, the state this year will be more of a spectator. Each of the state’s Republican and Democratic House members is expected to handily win, and neither Republican Sen. Rob Portman nor Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is on the ballot.

But House Speaker John Boehner, R-West Chester, and Portman could emerge as major winners if Republicans hold the House and win the Senate.

Portman is the chief fundraiser for Senate Republicans. Those close to him believe that, if Republicans win the Senate, he will be inclined to run for president. By holding the House, Boehner would be assured of serving two more years as speaker.

“If Republicans control both the Senate and the House, they would set the agenda,” said John Green, director of the Ray Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. “It would make John Boehner a more influential person.”

But a Republican Congress also would intensify the already-intense struggles between Obama and lawmakers. Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia, said a GOP victory would “produce more gridlock and make it even more difficult for Obama’s legislation to pass over the next two years.”

Democrats are trying to overcome two major disadvantages. Obama was handily re-elected in 2012, in large part because of a massive turnout by women, African-Americans, Latinos and young people. But this year, those groups may not vote in large-enough numbers

Many of the closest races are in states carried in 2012 by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

to save vulnerable Democrats.

Even more alarming for Democrats is that many of the close races are in states carried in 2012 by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. If Republican voters in Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina show up next month, the GOP could sweep them all.

“We don’t see a big wave, but Republicans don’t need a wave because they have the map,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor covering the Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

“What we have never seen before is the countervailing force, which is Democratic efforts to get drop-off voters out there — and they are spending a lot of time and money to do it,” she said.

Sabato said, “Currently, it looks like the Republicans could take the Senate by a seat or two. But it is no slam-dunk for the GOP, and there are still more than five weeks to go.”

No such suspense exists in the House. Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan “Rothenberg Political Report” in Washington, said that because House districts are so carefully drawn by Republican and Democratic state legislators, only 50 of the 435 seats are truly competitive. Rothenberg predicted a Republican gain of between two and 10 seats in the House.

Democrats, while saying little about the House, insist they will retain their Senate majority. Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said, “Democrats are wellpositioned to hold the majority because we have better candidates who are running smarter campaigns, while Republicans are saddled with bad candidates defending even-worse records.”

Barasky’s bravado is more than just wishful thinking. Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., has conducted an able re-election campaign, as has Sen. Jean Shaheen, D-N.H. In addition, Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan. — once considered certain for re-election — is fending off a spirited challenge from an independent candidate.

Historically, the party holding the White House loses seats in the congressional off-year election in a president’s second term. Democrats triumphed in 2006 during President George W. Bush’s second term, capitalizing on voter disillusionment with protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to gain six Senate seats and 31 in the House and seize control of both houses. A key victory was Brown’s over Republican Sen. Mike DeWine in Ohio.

“If there is a strong breeze at the back of one of the parties and they have nominated decent candidates, often the close races break their way,” Rothenberg said.

Analysts are suggesting a long evening on Nov. 4 as results trickle in from Alaska, Colorado and Kansas. In addition, because of election laws in Georgia and Louisiana, Americans may not even know that night which party controls the Senate.

With multiple candidates on the ballot in Louisiana, there is little chance that either Landrieu or Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will receive 50 percent of the vote, forcing a runoff between them on Dec. 6.

In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue is running against Democrat Michelle Nunn, a Libertarian also is running. If neither Perdue nor Nunn receives 50 percent of the vote, they will face each other in a runoff on Jan. 6, three days after the new Congress is scheduled to convene.

“This thing is going into overtime,” Duffy said.