US must counter North Korea threat

If you like Cold Warstyle thrillers and don’t mind getting the bejeebers scared out of you, we recommend an article by arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis titled “North Korea is Practicing for Nuclear War.”

North Korea is America’s strangest adversary: isolated, paranoid, belligerent and — armed to the teeth. Earlier this month the regime of Kim Jong Un simultaneously test-fired four missiles in the direction of Japan on an arc leading directly toward the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station at Iwakuni, Japan. Removing any doubt, North Korea announced that it was testing its capacity “to strike the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces in Japan.”

Lewis said that calling this provocation a “missile test” underplays the threat. His thesis is that North Korea, the U.S. and its South Korean ally are embarked on a dangerous course of gaming out first-strike capacities. Currently the U.S. and South Korea are conducting annual joint military exercises that appear to be dress rehearsals for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

North Korea hates these exercises and responded with its multiple-missile test. The significance of firing four rockets is that firing a quartet would increase the chances of eluding a sophisticated U.S. anti-missile defense system known as THAAD.

What disturbs Lewis is the idea that Kim might decide to use his nukes before the U.S. and South Korea can destroy his missile units. “He has to go first, if he is to go at all,” Lewis wrote. Gulp.

Instead of counting on THAAD to save humanity, we have another idea for the president: Game out scenarios in which the U.S, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia acknowledge the North Korean threat and exert pressure on Kim to discuss security guarantees in exchange for economic benefits. This group of countries has worked together previously to negotiate with North Korea, so there is precedent.

The obvious counterargument is that previous talks have produced no resolution. But this time the stakes are higher as Kim’s weapons programs move forward. Consider the Chinese position: They fear THAAD because the system’s powerful radar can peer beyond North Korea into China, theoretically identifying Chinese missiles and scoping out troop movements. Thus it could upset the balance of power with the U.S.

But don’t expect immediate breakthroughs: China is North Korea’s only powerful friend and has interests other than shooing away THAAD. For one, China doesn’t root for a North Korean collapse because it would send millions of refugees over the border into China. For another, there is China’s audacious moves to control the South China Sea.

But China mistrusts Kim. Remember last month’s strange assassination of Kim’s half-brother in Malaysia? He had been living under Chinese protection in Macau. In apparent reaction, the Chinese made a show of shutting down coal deliveries from North Korea.

Here’s what’s also true: China has no more interest than anyone else in waiting for North Korea to set off World War III in Asia. So amid the scary stories of North Korean brinkmanship, there is an opportunity for the Trump administration to work with whoever is willing to find a better ending to this chilling prospect.