In spread offense era, NFL-ready QBs hard to find
One of John Lynch’s first tasks as rookie general manager of the San Francisco 49ers is to find the next Joe Montana.
The job, which is hard enough under any circumstances, has been made more difficult by the proliferation of spread offenses throughout the college and even high school ranks.
“I think that’s one of the challenges this whole league is dealing with,” Lynch said. “To be quite honest, it’s tough at times.”
In the spread offense, quarterbacks are rarely under center, they don’t have to read the entire defense and on some plays, they throw to predetermined receivers. Think: Anti-NFL.
“The football being played from the high school level to the college level is a different brand of football than they’re going to be asked to play (in the NFL),” Lynch said. “So I think the word “projection’ is an apt one because that’s exactly what you’re doing.”
When Tampa Bay had the first overall pick, in 2015, they were elated that Jameis Winston played in a pro-style offense at Florida State. They picked him over Marcus Mariota, who ran a spread attack at Oregon. He was taken as the second pick by Tennessee.
“(Winston) had the arm,” Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht said. “He had the pro-style offense. He was comfortable in the pocket. And those are all things that are hard to find right now in a quarterback coming up with all the spread systems.”
Many of top quarterbacks in the 2017 draft, led by Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, played in spread offenses.
At his pro day workout, Watson opened up taking snaps from center and then throwing, determined to show scouts that he could drop back to pass. He believes he can make the necessary adjustments in the NFL.
“They know that I’m not just some other quarterback who is running a spread offense, that (I’m a) guy who can operate, make good decisions and recognize what the defense is doing and be successful doing it,” Watson said.
Some draft analysts consider Mitch Trubisky to be the top quarterback prospect, but that’s based off a small sample of 13 starts, all last season, at North Carolina.
“Trubisky was highly efficient in the Tar Heels’ up-tempo, zone-read scheme, taking snaps primarily from the pistol and shotgun formations — heavy volume of throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage that helped boost his completion percentage,” wrote Dane Brugler in his 2017 NFL Draft Guide. “He has outstanding mobility for his size and doesn’t receive enough credit for his ability to move the pocket and buy extra half-seconds.”
Brugler has Trubisky rated as the top passer. Others, like former NFL scout and NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, have Watson rated first.
“I have Watson (No.) 28, Trubisky 32, (Notre Dame’s DeShone) Kizer 33, just in terms of where they are on my top 50 list, how I sequenced them in,” Jeremiah said.
Overall, though, the group is not highly rated, though draft analysts differ on how they view this class.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. predicts that Trubisky will be the first quarterback taken, at No. 6, while colleague Todd McShay projects Watson going at No. 7, before Trubisky. Jeremiah doesn’t have a quarterback ranked among his top 25 players in the draft.
“It’s just going to make the documentary and the story in five, 10 years even better whenever they start talking good about us,” said Watson, who led Clemson to the national championship last season.
“I know there has been a lot of shots taken at this class,” said NFL Network analyst Bucky Brooks, a former NFL player and scout. “But there are some young developmental players at the position who are intriguing prospects. I do believe in time that one or two of these guys can emerge as stars at the position.”
Trubisky is one such prospect. He has the size (6 feet 2 and 222 pounds) and speed NFL teams crave, but lacks a long track record as a starter.
He threw 30 touchdown passes and only six interceptions last season while completing 68 percent of his passes and averaging 288 yards per game. But the fact he spent his first two eligible years at North Carolina as a reserve leaves him open to inquisition.
“That’s a question everybody’s asking,” Trubisky said of his lack of experience. “I think I definitely have enough experience. I only have 13 starts but I played in 30 games. … I’m a student of the game and I’ve seen a lot of defenses, and I think that’s going to help me.”
The fact remains that with QBs, it’s all about need. And some teams, like Cleveland with the No. 1 pick or the New York Jets with the sixth pick, appear set to draft a quarterback early, perhaps even too high.
“I’m all for taking a quarterback if you think he’s the 12th best player and you end up taking him at six. I can get on board with that,” Jeremiah said. “But, man, taking a guy who is kind of a borderline late-one, early-two (-round pick), vaulting him all the way up into the
top 10 in this year’s draft, I don’t think it’s smart business.”
Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been a steady climber through the predraft process. He has been scheduled for a leaguehigh 18 official visits and private workouts, according to the Houston Chronicle.
He could be selected by New Orleans as an heir apparent to Drew Brees. He has had a private workout for the Saints and the Arizona
Cardinals.
“You could do a cutup of 15 to 20 throws, you’ll see (Mahomes) almost identical to a Matt Stafford-type flow throw, off platform, off balance, ridiculous arm strength, put the ball right where he wants to put it,” Jeremiah said. “Along with that excitement to his play, you have the irresponsibility of his play, throwing the ball up in the air.”