Tortorella gradually embracing advanced stats from analytics
Josh Flynn chuckles when he hears Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella occasionally slipping advanced statistics into a news conference.
As director of hockey administration, Flynn is the Jackets’ guru of analytics. At least publicly, Tortorella has about as much use for them as he does Sidney Crosby collectibles.
“I don’t care what anyone says in this league, (Corsi and Fenwick advanced stats) don’t apply to the game of hockey,” Tortorella said in November. “The scoring chances for and (against) is what tells you the story of the individual player and your team concept, as far as what’s going on.”
But those within the organization say that the 58-year-old NHL coach-of-the-year finalist is a bit more in tune with analytics than he is willing to admit.
Tortorella referenced the Jackets’ puck possession — an advanced stat bedrock — multiple times during their fivegame playoff series loss to Pittsburgh. In October, he also stressed the importance of attempting 60 to 65 shots per game, which is at the heart of Corsi, a metric estimating puck possession by combining shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots.
“I know Torts has been a little crusty about it publicly, but that has not been my experience with him,” said Flynn, a panelist at the Sloan Analytics Conference in March. “He is not the type of guy who likes to sit down and have long meetings about analytics. But I feed him and other coaches some stuff that I think will be interesting to them. I let them take what they want from it.”
Flynn’s comments echo those made by general manager Jarmo Kekalainen and president of hockey operations John Davidson at their end-of-season news conference on Monday. Both men grinned as they answered questions about Tortorella’s perceived war on numbers.
“He is very receptive, and he will study and he will read,” Kekalainen said. “He has his own ways of barking about it, but he is a smart man. If he sees something and you can prove it to him, he will always be willing to talk and explore. He will have an open mind. I think that is a big misconception about him, that he is that hard-headed.”
Baseball led the deep dive into analytics with the success of the “Moneyball” Oakland Athletics in the early 2000s. Hockey was slower to embrace the power of advanced numbers, but Flynn said the Blue Jackets have been using them since at least 2008. Former general manager Scott Howson assigned Flynn to study that year’s elite defensemen and chart metrics such as number of puck touches, passes that led to clean offensive zone entries and point shots that reach the net. The same data was then collected on Jackets’ blueliners and free agents of interest.
Several NHL organizations have analytics-specific front-office members. The Blue Jackets are not among them. Advanced stats are only part of Flynn’s responsibilities. He compiles them and provides coaches and management with breakdowns after every game, while also tracking trends over 10-game intervals. Staff interns assist him as needed.
Kekalainen sees the value in analytics. He pointed to the correlation between puck possession and the success of Los Angeles, Chicago and Pittsburgh — winners of seven of the last eight Stanley Cups. Of course, fancy calculations never tell the whole story. The Kings have missed the playoffs two of the last three years.
And, in the Jackets’ series loss to Pittsburgh, they had the better 5v5 Corsi in four games.
“You know, we joke about it after the games, ‘Oh, we won the Corsi but we lost the game’ or vice-versa,” Kekalainen said. “I'm hearing less and less of that from Torts lately, so I'm thinking that he is slowly starting (to see) there is a true correlation between the advanced stats and winning. But again, a sample size of five games might not give you the true story.”
Each team interprets data differently. The “eye-ball test” remains vital in any evaluation. The Blue Jackets laud the contributions of defenseman Jack Johnson, who historically has had poor Corsi numbers.
“It’s not a ‘Revenge of the Nerds’ thing at all the way I see it,” Flynn said. “I am very skeptical of people who are very black-andwhite with data. It’s a tool that helps clarify what you see with your eyes. … Where the data doesn’t match is where you start asking questions, and that helps improve your process. It helps flag inconsistencies and generates better discussions.”
The Blue Jackets use advanced stats to help break down games, assess roster composition and evaluate free agents and draft prospects.
Management spoke of Tortorella’s growing interest in analytics after the coach’s final media availability last Saturday. Flynn said he is careful not to push advanced stats on coaches, but concedes that Tortorella asked him to do a research project earlier in the season.
“I give him the data, and if he wants to ask more questions he can,” Flynn said. “I don’t want to speak for Torts, but he has never come to me and said, ‘Stop sending me this stuff.’ ”