Tiberi has plenty for campaign ... where?
WASHINGTON — It was the number that renewed the murmurs: $6.3 million.
That was the amount U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi had in his campaign coffers, a crazy amount of cash for a congressman with a relatively safe seat.
Questions about whether the Genoa Township Republican first elected in 2000 might run for Senate in 2018 had ebbed in recent months, with Tiberi seeming to focus
on tax changes and a healthcare revamp rather than doing the politicking one does when preparing to make a statewide run.
But $6.3 million — that’s a wad of cash. That’s more than the $4.9 million Sen. Sherrod Brown has in the bank and far more than the $2.44 million accumulated by state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who already has launched his challenge of Brown.
Tiberi proclaims himself undecided, saying through spokeswoman Olivia Hnat he’s “still considering a run.”
But that hasn’t stopped some from treating him as a candidate already. In early April, the conservative Club for Growth, which has backed Mandel in the Republican primary for the seat, aired a $1 million worth of ads against Tiberi and nine GOP moderates for the House’s failure to repeal and replace Obamacare. Tiberi had backed the plan that never attracted enough votes for passage.
It’s not hard to imagine that Tiberi might be motivated to run.
Considered a top lieutenant to former House Speaker John Boehner, Tiberi, 54, a onetime aide to thenRep. John Kasich, spent years in a highly coveted spot: Because of his close friendship with Boehner, he had political clout by proxy. And his senior position on the House Ways and Means Committee meant he had a seat at the table for major tax and health legislation. He had — and has — key subcommittee chairmanships; first trade, then health.
But his fortunes shifted when Boehner left.
Tiberi retained his spot on the committee, but Republicans who track politics in the House say he doesn’t share the same bond with Boehner’s successor, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
In 2015, Tiberi sought the chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee and, according to those who watched his bid, had enough votes to take the slot. But Ryan told allies he wanted Texan Kevin Brady to be chairman. In the end, Tiberi lost the slot.
He was frustrated again early this year when the House Freedom Caucus — founded by fellow Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Jordan — torpedoed legislation to replace Obamacare that Tiberi and other mainstream House Republicans backed.
Meanwhile, at home, he’s being targeted by Democrats who have called, repeatedly and loudly, for him to hold a town-hall meeting. Tiberi has instead opted for private meetings in his Columbus office and tele-town halls.
“I think Pat is very frustrated,” said one Ohio Republican, who said the Freedom Caucus’ opposition of the health-care bill was just the latest indignity.
Still, the Republican said, except for the fat bank account, there is little indication that Tiberi will attempt a Senate bid.
“He’s not a risk-taker,” said Barry Bennett, a Republican consultant who has worked for Ohio lawmakers including Sen. Rob Portman. “He’s probably more interested in tax reform than he is running for Senate.”
If he were to run, Tiberi “would excite a lot of people,” Bennett said.
“He’d be a good candidate, (but) Dom Tiberi is better known than Pat Tiberi” — a reference to the WBNSTV Channel 10 sports anchor whose last name is pronounced differently.
The run-don’t run decision could be complicated by a variety of factors.
First, there’s Mandel, who ran in 2012 and won statewide office in 2010 and 2014. While Brown beat him handily in 2012, Mandel now has the advantage over Tiberi of name identification — and in a Republican primary, where the conservative base is often more reliable to vote, the Marine veteran might fare well.
“I mean, he’s effectively been running for the Senate for six or seven years now,” said Kyle Kondik, an Ohio University graduate who now works for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Then, there’s the job security. Tiberi won his seat with nearly 67 percent of the vote in 2016. His name is recognizable in his district but not necessarily so statewide. Should he shoot for the Senate, there’s no guarantee he’ll win. The safer bet is to stay put.
“Despite the bank account, I don’t know if there’s an incentive there for Tiberi to run,” Kondik said.
But Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said that while House members who are in the party of the president are more likely to lose during the first midterm in the president’s term, Senate candidates fare slightly better. Of the past 10 midterm elections, the president’s party lost House seats nine times and Senate seats six times.
“The whole ‘midterm losing safe seats’ rule is less dominant in the Senate than it is in the House,” she said.
Duffy said many Ohio Republicans are still hoping for an alternative to Mandel, whom Democrats have “been beating up every day” for issues including transparency.
“For being so early in the campaign, he’s had kind of a rough time,” she said. “My sense is he didn’t learn much from that last race.”
But shouldn’t Tiberi be making a decision about a statewide primary barely more than a year away?
“I think he’s got some time,” said Duffy, who noted that current National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Cory Gardner of Colorado didn’t start his race until February of his election year.
“I think this is going to be one of those cycles that just starts late.”