Predicting growth
No prediction is etched in stone, and much depends on how fast the area grows.
Community leaders assume an additional 1 million people will populate the seven-county region by 2050, as the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) has projected. Some say that estimate is conservative, even though the region’s growth traditionally has been slow and steady.
“A lot can happen in 35 years. It’s relatively easy to project births and deaths, at least at an aggregate level,” said economist Bill LaFayette, founder and owner of Regionomics LLC in the Columbus area. “It’s much harder to predict net migration. That’s where population projections tend to go wrong.”
MORPC based its projection on the 115,000 people the sevencounty region added between 2010 and 2015. About half of that was due to births, with another quarter moving here from outside the region and the rest coming from abroad, said Liz Whalen, a data analyst for the commission.
"We've become a kind of economic magnet," Whalen said. Those numbers could change, based on unforeseen factors such as immigration restrictions or economic downturns.
"There is certainly room for the possibility that the growth trend could level off between now and 2050," she said.
But unpredictable events or economic factors could cause the area to grow even faster than predicted, too. Alex Fischer, president and CEO of the Columbus Partnership of business leaders, is convinced that the metro area will grow to 3 million in just 10 to 15 years.
“It’s gonna happen way quicker than the historic modeling suggests,” Fischer said. “It’s a city that sits in the center of a population that’s young, vibrant, innovative,” citing the 150,000 college students in the area.
Henry Butcher believes that, too. The owner of the Creole Kitchen restaurant on Mount Vernon Avenue on the Near East Side said it is possible Columbus’ population could vault into the country’s top 10 in 20 years. The city’s population now tops 860,000, by far the largest in Ohio. Butcher, a 69-year-old native of Shreveport, Louisiana, notices the new apartments rising in his neighborhood.
“I remember when they used to call Columbus a cowtown,” he said.
Many predict that the biggest population growth will be among young adults and senior citizens.
That means the region must make preparations on two fronts.
Planners need to develop walkable, vibrant communities to attract young residents, and the region needs enough desirable jobs to keep them here.
At the same time, they recognize the need to prepare for an aging population that will need to live within easy access of amenities. The growing elderly population could put added stress on an already overworked healthcare system.
“You can’t have multi-unit housing for old people isolated from the rest of communities,” said Ned Hill, a professor in Ohio State University’s John Glenn College of Public Affairs. “We can’t afford to have the form of nursing home industry that we currently have.”