Harvey warns of stormy future

Based on previous weather data (www. losc. lsu. edu/ tech97_ 2. pdf), the maximum expected rainfall for any single 24 hours over a 100- year period along the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana was supposed to be 16 inches. So, before it happened, what was the predicted chance of a storm like Harvey dumping 50 inches of rain in three days?

Setting aside the highly unlikely chance of observing these record rainfalls on any three consecutive days across 100 years, a very conservative estimate of the likelihood of Harvey’s 50 inches of rain, or 16 inches of rain for each of three days, is x x or

1 in a million. Extreme storms like Harvey are clearly no longer 1 million- or 1,000- or 100-year events. We will be very lucky if t hey turn out to be 1 in 10 or even five- year events.

In the real world, as I write this, Category 5 Irma is tearing across the Caribbean and will soon turn north toward Florida.

Now consider what’s going to happen when 50 inches of rain falls on New Orleans. Their flood control system, if it works, presumes this maximum of 16 inches of rain per event. Look up a cross section elevation map of New Orleans between the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain to see where all the water will go when their flood control system is overwhelmed.

Harvey means any politician, political party, corporation or media hack who continues to ignore or consciously hide the impact of global climate change is personally threatening our world’s economic and political stability and countless human lives. No matter the legal immunity, claims to free speech, whatever, arguing against immediate massive investments to end the burning of carbon- based fuels is a crime against humanity.

Ronald Sears Worthington