Analyses differ on stakes for Ohio

Contradicting a study released Wednesday that indicated Ohio would emerge as a major financial loser if the Senate approves a new GOP health-care bill, the Kaiser Family Foundation released an analysis Thursday saying Ohio’s loss would be much smaller.

Kaiser, a nonprofit organization in Washington that analyzes health issues,

concluded that if the bill co-sponsored by Republican Sens. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana becomes law, Ohio probably would lose $610 million in federal dollars from 2020 through 2026, compared with projections under Obamacare.

By contrast, the analysis released Wednesday by the Washington consulting firm of Avalere Health showed Ohio would lose $9 billion in federal dollars during those same years.

Meanwhile, the Ohio Governor’s Office of Health Transformation released projections from two additional groups: Manatt Health estimated a $4 billion loss, while the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities projected a $2.6 billion drop.

The pick-your-number sweepstakes is likely to sow added confusion in the Republicans’ rush to repeal Obamacare within the next week, when they can do it with approval of only 50 votes in a Senate chamber they control with 52 members — meaning three GOP defections would sink yet another attempt by Republicans to keep repeated campaign promises to dump the Affordable Care Act approved in 2010. Because of arcane Senate rules, after next week it would take 60 votes.

The competing cost figures from private organizations take on added importance because the GOP is moving too fast for the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to provide an estimate.

“The current effort in Congress to rush a reform that is not yet fully understood is risky and in the wrong direction,” the state health office said.

Also Thursday, AARP-Ohio estimated health-care costs for lower-income older Ohioans could increase by $13,563 under Graham-Cassidy.

Republican leaders have all but abandoned a bipartisan approach favored by Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

“Nothing can be sustained that is just one party,” he said Wednesday night on MSNBC. “Obamacare is very flawed, but there are ways to fix it if we work together.”

The Graham-Cassidy bill would scrap much of Obamacare by shifting hundreds of billions of dollars to the states via block grants to design their own health-care plans.

The federal money would be based on a formula that includes how much each state is spending on federally subsidized individual insurance policies, how many poor people are in a state and the state’s per capita Medicaid spending.

Both Avalere and Kaiser defended their analysis, explaining they relied on different methodology.

Rachel Garfield, one of the authors of the Kaiser study, said both “our study and Avalere estimate that Ohio would lose under the bill ... We really view our study and Avalere’s as building a body of evidence; given that underlying methods can make a difference, we see the main takeaway that there is a lot of uncertainty about what would happen in the state.”

One of the key GOP votes in the Senate, Ohio’s Rob Portman, said he remains undecided on Graham-Cassidy.

“I think the new Senate bill is better for Ohio,” said Portman, who wants to add money for opioid treatment. “I’m still looking at it because, frankly, we’re still looking at the numbers for Ohio and we’re trying to get the best information we can.”

Portman said he’s “OK” with the block grants in the current measure.