Defeat of ISIS is near. Then what?
The once-fearsome Islamic State army now staggers through its last days. U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters declared Tuesday that they had recaptured Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the fast-crumbling caliphate. That is a swift and remarkable achievement for an improbable coalition of global friends, enemies and frenemies who looked past other conflicts to focus on crushing the barbarous Islamic State.
Does this portend an interlude of relative calm in the Middle East? Sadly, not likely.
Some thoughts about the terrain ahead:
■ The Islamic State, the army, is in shambles. But the Islamic State, the jihadist rallying cry, will likely continue to inspire terror attacks around the globe. That calls for a stronger global strategy to quash the group’s online recruitment and radicalizing of young people.
■ Ally vs. ally: Iraq’s army and Kurdish fighters, two U.S. allies, helped defeat the Islamic State. Unfortunately they’re now skirmishing with each other. Iraqi government forces have reclaimed control of the Kurdish northern city of Kirkuk after the Kurds voted to seek independence several weeks ago. Absent strong U.S. diplomacy, the threat of civil war looms.
Recall the panic in 2014 when the Islamic State rampaged onto the world stage, intent on marking its caliphate in blood from Syria and Iraq. The militants posted videos of crucifixions and public executions. They celebrated public beheadings. They hoisted the severed heads of Syrian soldiers on poles. They captured women as sex slaves and forced brides.
They seized so much territory so fast that some Iraqis feared they would march on Baghdad and split the country not quite three years after the last U.S. troops had left.
President Barack Obama, who had famously dismissed the Islamic State as the “junior varsity,” belatedly reversed course. He vowed to “degrade and ultimately destroy” Islamic State. That demanded mostly non-American boots on the ground — and a vigorous follow-through by President Donald Trump, who armed the Syrian Kurds to help recapture Raqqa.
The Islamic State’s power grab and brutal tactics managed to unite (more or less) the U.S. and a list of its adversaries and allies. Thus did the U.S. find itself in a foxhole with Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey.
Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government still isn’t sharing power with Sunni political leaders, the key to reconciliation. Islamic State fighters could regroup and launch an insurgency.
In 2011, we cautiously celebrated the demise if not death of al-Qaida. A team of Navy SEALs had dispatched al-Qaida mastermind Osama bin Laden, and an American drone attack killed his operations chief. The terror group never recovered.
Today, as the Islamic State reels, the U.S. and its allies face a cast of terrorist converts still pledging allegiance to the caliphate that isn’t, still plotting one-off attacks with cars, trucks or knives against civilians.
Then, as now, killing terrorist leaders wherever they plot is vital. But eradicating the nihilistic, blood-drenched creed that helps terrorists recruit followers is an equally critical mission that, unlike the combat that is evicting the Islamic State, never ends.