Virginia election holds lessons for both parties
More like an earthquake than a hurricane, the remaking of America’s political parties hit without warning. At least no alert was detected by the seismometers or twitching antennae of the certified experts of political science. (Or those who still insist politics really is a science.)
Yet, make no mistake, the remake is real. It is a reworkin-progress. And it wasn’t detected until the politicos felt it happening in Tuesday’s 2017 election.
The political earth moved for the Democrats, most climactically. And that shook the Republicans, most distressingly, as Democrats won, in scattered races everywhere the off-year elections were held:
In Virginia, Democrat Ralph Northam was elected governor with a 9 percentage-point margin that was the party’s biggest in 32 years. Virginia’s Democrats triumphed all the way down the ballot, including flipping 14 GOP-held state house seats. In New Jersey, where Democrat Phil Murphy’s unsurprising win ended the era of the unpopular Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Even in reliably Republican Georgia, Democrats captured three GOP-held state house seats.
The quick-and-easy TV punditry made the obvious perfectly clear: Independents and even Republicans nationwide were rebelling against President Donald Trump’s combative, untruthful and bullying ways. Indeed, Virginia’s voter exit polls showed that 57 percent of those voting disapproved of how Trump is performing his job; and unsurprisingly, Democrat Northam received 87 percent of those votes. Gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie, a longtime Republican strategist and lobbyist, won the votes of almost all of the 40 percent who said they approved of Trump’s job performance. But exit polls cannot measure the views of those who stayed home because they are turned off by Trump’s unpresidential conduct.
Gillespie chose a Trumpstyled appeal emphasizing conservative base-driving, non substantive issues (i.e.: not removing Virginia’s confederacy statues). But Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s program that Northam backed restored rights to permit voting, serving on juries and obtaining firearms.
Virginians surprised me. After newspaper editorials blasted his ads, Gillespie wound up losing many college-educated voters, especially suburban white women who last year voted for Trump.
But Virginia’s exit polls also revealed a most significant lesson for nationwide Republicans. While strategists push their negative attack ads, we just learned that people really care most about the things that affect their families most. (Repeat in unison: Duh!)
When exit pollsters asked people which of five issues mattered most as they decided whom to vote for, Virginians overwhelmingly named only one — health care. It scored 39 percent; all others (gun policy, taxes, immigration, and abortion) scored in the teens or lower.
Most importantly: 77 percent of those listing health care as most important in their choice then voted for Democrat Northam. Only 23 percent who cited health care voted for Gillespie.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Paul Ryan and the entire GOP congressional leadership must share the blame, because they failed to protect Americans’ healthcare insurance. Voters realize every idea the GOP leaders pushed in the guise of repealing and replacing Obamacare would cause millions of middle-class families to lose their health insurance, independent analysts said.
Tuesday’s real message for Republicans was unmistakable: Their own working-class base fears losing their health-insurance security. Yet, when it came to safeguarding the security fears of their own hardworking Americans, the once-Grand Old Party has shown it is no longer grand, nor even good. The GOP leaders don’t care — and the people get it.