Slow wage growth may hurt retail season

The millions of deal-seeking shoppers who jam malls and store aisles over the next few days will be doing so in what is by most measures the best economy in a decade. But two questions loom over the holiday shopping season: How free will Americans be with their spending when wage growth remains anemic? And how much of that money will they spend in stores, given the continuing shift toward online shopping?

Overall, Americans appear confident in their economic prospects. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, is at its lowest level since the Clinton administration. The stock market is soaring. Even this fall’s hurricanes could not upend a second-consecutive quarter of solid economic growth.

The University of Michigan on Wednesday said consumer sentiment ticked down in November but remained close to its highest level since 2004. A separate survey conducted for The New York Times this month by the online polling firm SurveyMonkey likewise found that confidence was high and stable.

“People aren’t rushing to save money the way they were during the downturn,” said Jon Cohen, vice president of survey research for SurveyMonkey.

But that confidence may not translate into booming holiday sales. Most Americans plan to spend the same on their holiday shopping as last year, or less, according to the survey; only 12 percent plan to spend more. Diane Swonk, an independent economist in Chicago, said she expected a strong shopping season but one that might be tempered somewhat by the lag in wage growth, which has consistently fallen short of economists’ expectations.

Still, those concerns are unlikely to keep U.S. shoppers from taking advantage of the Black Friday deals central to many retailers’ strategies. Two-thirds of Americans plan to shop over the long Thanksgiving weekend, according to SurveyMonkey, and nearly a quarter plan to do all or most of their holiday shopping in that period.