The House casualty list
Number of members who have retired, resigned, been appointed to another office or decided to run for another office, by term:
42 35 34 38 46 49 55 46 41 the departures. Tiberi considered a bid against Sen. Sherrod Brown, then opted not to. He ultimately chose to take the Business Roundtable job and head back to Ohio. “Now, he’s against the culture of Washington when before he was trying to explore remaining in Washington,” Gonzales said.
Tiberi joins seven other members in resigning. Four took jobs in the administration. One became the attorney general of California. One resigned after a sex scandal. And one — Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R–Utah — also left for a new job, as a commentator on Fox News. Eighteen lawmakers, meanwhile, are seeking other office, according to the House Press Gallery. One other Ohioan — Rep. Jim Renacci, R–Wadsworth, who is running for governor — will also leave at the end of this term.
At least ideologically and in experience, though, Tiberi is similar to the retirements. He is in his ninth term representing central Ohio; of the 15 retiring members, 11 have served seven or more terms.
Gonzales wonders if some of the retirements were influenced by the fear of 2018 midterm elections — first-term presidents usually see sweeping congressional losses within their party. The party in the White House has lost seats in 18 of the last 21 midterm elections stretching back to Franklin D. Roosevelt.
The more experienced members, he said, might remember being in the minority before and have decided not to repeat that experience.
“It’s easier to stand on principle and say ‘the next election doesn’t matter if I’m in the minority’ if you’ve never served in the minority,” he said.
Some lawmakers have made their reasons for retirement clear, he said. Rep. Charlie Dent, R–Pennsylvania, has been vocal about his frustrations with the more conservative members of his party. Others, such as Rep. Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, will be term-limited out of a chairmanship and doesn’t want to “go back to the minor leagues of not being a chairman.”
For his part, Tiberi insists he left because of the opportunity to continue public service and be closer to his family, including his four daughters and his ailing father. His mother died earlier this year — a difficult experience that made him want to be at home.
Kyle Kondik, of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said while some of the seats Republicans are leaving could be vulnerable — Dave Reichert of Washington, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida — many of the seats are considered safe for Republicans.
That includes Tiberi’s and Renacci’s.
While former NFL player Anthony Gonzalez appears to hold a decisive edge in Renacci’s northeast Ohio district, Tiberi’s is still a little harder to gauge. While safely Republican, no clear successor has emerged.
Still, Kondik said, anything can happen. “Open seats can put seats in play that you wouldn’t otherwise expect,” he said, noting that while that district is traditionally very Republican, “it’s not really Trumpish.”
“The district should hold,” he said, “but I’ve seen some competitive special elections in unexpected places this year, so it’s worth watching.”