Earnings estimates aren’t that useful

Q: Where can I find Wall Street’s earnings estimates for various companies’ upcoming quarterly reports?

A: You can find projected earnings at a variety of online sites, such as finance. yahoo.com. (Enter a company’s ticker symbol there, and then click on “Analysts” on the next page.)

Don’t pay too much attention to those numbers, though. For one thing, they’re just guesses, although they’re often based on information and guidance from the company. Think about that, too: if a company reports earnings that exceed the analyst estimates that it helped shape, is that really impressive? Many companies might just lowball their projections to look good when posting results.

The analyst reports that your brokerage might offer can be far more informative, offering insights into a company’s health and competitive position as well as the challenges facing its industry. Don’t give too much weight to ratings such as “strong buy” or “outperform.” Analysts issue few “sell” ratings, and they’re not known for accuracy. Fool’s School: Market timing

It’s tempting to think that you can improve your investment performance by jumping into and out of the market at the best times. Many financial pundits even suggest that you try to do so, as they predict market crashes and booms. But knowing the best time to buy and sell is much easier said than done — and plenty of studies have supported that.

For example, the folks at Index Fund Advisors noted that in the 20 years from 1994 through 2013, the S&P 500 index of 500 of America’s biggest companies averaged an annual return of 9.2 percent, enough to turn a $10,000 initial investment into $58,352. But any investor who missed the 10 days with the biggest gains would see their average return fall to 5.5 percent and their final total fall to $29,121. If you’re engaging in market timing, you might well be out of the market after downturns, missing some of the best days while you wait for a recovery to be clearly underway.

As index-fund pioneer John Bogle has quipped, “Sure, it’d be great to get out of stocks at the high and jump back in at the low... (but) in 55 years in the business, I not only have never met anybody who knew how to do it, I’ve never met anybody who had met anybody who knew how to do it.”

Market timing also can be expensive. Getting into and out of investments frequently can leave you with short-term capital gains (if you’re lucky to have avoided losses) that are generally taxed at a higher rate than long-term gains. Frequent trading can generate lots of commission fees, too, from all the buying and selling.

Remember that over the very long term, the S&P 500 has gone up in more years than it has gone down. You’re likely to see your money grow simply by being patient — perhaps investing regularly in one or more inexpensive, broad-market index funds. Name that company

I was born when two soap- and candle-making brothers- in- law joined forces in 1837. In 1933, I produced a radio soap opera, and I aired my first TV commercial in 1939. Today, based in Cincinnati, I oversee more than 20 consumer-product brands that each generate more than $ 1 billion in sales. They include Always, Bounty, Braun, Charmin, Crest, Dawn, Downy, Fusion, Gain, Gillette, Head & Shoulders, IAMS, Mach3, Olay, Oral-B, Pampers, Pantene, Pringles, Tide and Wella. I rake in more than $ 65 billion annually and recently sported a market value near $ 225 billion. My logo was once celestial. Who am I?

Last week’s answer

I trace my roots to 2000, when I began above a pizza shop in Massachusetts. In 2002, I debuted an index ranking travel properties by popularity. For a while, I was part of Expedia, but I was spun off in 2011. Who am I? (Answer: TripAdvisor)