Time to rethink ‘ full employment’
The U.S. job market is full. It’s been at capacity for more than two years now, at least according to the monthly unemployment report. And it’s likely to remain there in the week ahead.
For years, economists considered an unemployment rate of around 5 percent to signify that everyone who wanted a job in America had one. Maybe it wasn’t the job they wanted or loved or paid enough, but it was employment. The national unemployment rate has been at or below 5 percent for 26 consecutive months. That is expected to grow to 27 months when the November data are released Friday.
“The frictions in the labor market are going down so our natural rate of unemployment should be lower,” Rob Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told me. The Fed’s own peg is 4.8 percent. Even as that as a gauge, America’s job market has been full all year.
So what gives? Maybe it’s because American workers are aging. The unemployment rate tends to drop with age. It’s also easier to look for work. If the Federal Reserve lowers what it considers to be full employment, it could give the Fed more leeway in how it manages its target interest rate. That goal won’t change, but how full is full may.
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