Groups emerge as winners, losers

WASHINGTON — Count President Donald Trump among the personal winners in the $1.5 trillion tax package that congressional Republicans are on the verge of passing. It’s not only a political score for Trump but also probably a windfall for his real estate empire, too.

Oil drillers would also benefit. So would multimillionaire and billionaire owners of sports teams. Companies would enjoy a bounty from permanently lower tax rates. Lawyers and accountants will profit from the advice suddenly needed to guide clients through the tax plan.

The bill creates plenty of losers, too. An estimated 13 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance. Commuters will no longer receive a perk that has saved them money. Some residents of high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey and California will pay more in taxes.

And millions of American households could face tax hikes in coming years. That’s because their new tax breaks are set to expire after 2025. And their taxes could creep up because the IRS has been directed to use a less generous gauge of inflation in adjusting tax brackets.

Republican lawmakers have sold their far-reaching legislation as benefiting everyone in the long run because, they argue, it will speed up economic growth.

Among the tax plan’s winners:

The Trump Organization: At least temporarily, companies with profits that double as the owner’s personal income would enjoy a substantial tax break. Consider the Trump Organization. It consists of about 500 such “pass-through” entities, according to the president’s attorneys. Rather than pay the top rate of nearly 40 percent, Trump probably would be taxed on these profits at closer to 30 percent.

The final bill also appears to specifically benefit the real estate sector, the bedrock of the Trump family’s wealth, with benefits for depreciating the value of property held by pass-through companies.

The president’s family didn’t receive every possible benefit. The estate tax on inheritances, for example, will stay in place, although it will apply only to the portion of a family’s estate that exceeds $11 million — twice the previous level — at least through 2025.

And the alternative minimum tax, which is intended to prevent the wealthy from exploiting loopholes to avoid taxes, would stay in place as well, although its higher thresholds would also be temporary.

Oil and gas drillers: It’s no longer off limits to drill in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and natural gas. President Barack Obama had sought to protect the 19.6-million acres. Republicans insist that drilling can be done safely with new technology while ensuring a steady energy supply for West Coast refineries.

Private schools and their students’ families: Parents would be eligible to use a type of tax-preferred savings plan — known as a 529 plan — to save for their children’s elementary and secondary education. Those savings plans have been only eligible for college. They would be expanded to allow for up to $10,000 a year for tuition at private and religious schools.

Architects and engineers: They were originally restricted in how much they could benefit from the new pass-through provision. If they structure their businesses a certain way, the final version will let them benefit fully.

The liquor business: Excise taxes for small brewers and distillers are reduced in the final agreement. Those industries are dominated by entrepreneurial small businesses often based in rural areas. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, tucked a provision to help craft brewers into the Senate legislation and was part of the small team of lawmakers who pulled together the final version.

At the same time, many individuals and groups are likely to be on the losing end. Among them:

People buying health insurance: With the repeal of the individual mandate, some people who currently buy health insurance because they are required by law to do so are expected to go without coverage. According to the Congressional Budget Office, healthier people are more likely to drop their insurance, leaving insurers stuck with more people who are older and ailing. This is expected to make average insurance premiums on the individual market go up by about 10 percent. All told, 13 million fewer Americans are projected to have health coverage, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Individual taxpayers in the future: To stay under the $1.5 trillion limit for new deficits lawmakers set for themselves, they opted to make the cuts for individuals and families temporary, expiring at the end of 2025 — even as the corporate tax cuts will be permanent. Republicans are counting on a future Congress to extend the lower rates, as has happened in the past.

The elderly: A 2010 law requires that any legislation that adds to the federal deficit be paid for by spending cuts, increases in revenue or other offsets. Some cuts would be automatic, and the biggest program to be affected is Medicare, the health insurance program for the elderly and disabled. Dozens of other programs are likely to be cut as well, but Medicare, which would face a 4 percent cut, is by far the biggest. Republicans say that this rule will be waived and the cuts will be averted, but that will take a bipartisan deal.