How will the ‘third estate’ fare in 2018?
In the 18th century, the term “three estates” was coined. Those “estates” (of power) were, in order, the clergy, nobility and “commoners.” The commoners were the most numerous but held less power than the rest until they rebelled for more rights. The American Revolution was a prime example of that, as our country became the standard bearer of democracy it still is 230 years later.
As we turn the page on what surely will be viewed as a key year of an America in transition, will the interests of the third estate, or what we now call the common man (and woman), be well served in 2018?
The following developments, among others, should provide some clues:
Pending Supreme Court decisions on partisan gerrymandering, privacy rights, and religious freedom;
The impact of the tax-cut bill and continuing regulatory changes;
The acceleration of disruption of business by forces, including automation and Amazon;
A deeper sensitivity to gender relations following sexual-harassment allegations;
The unpredictability of our tweeting president.
Some changes will alter our perception of the country’s direction immediately. Submitted for your consideration are this writer’s predictions for 2018:
By the second half of the year, we should see the emerging impact of the tax legislation on corporate profits, not just in terms of greater corporate earnings and potentially higher stock prices, but also how those profits are deployed. Many business commentators think profits will be used to buy back shares and pursue other “shareholder value”-related moves. Few think corporations will use profits to create jobs unless they were already planning to do so. If that happens, a backlash against the GOPdominated Congress and President Trump could manifest itself in the 2018 mid-term elections.
The swing of the regulatory pendulum from what many believed was excessive regulation to a nearly opposite pole should, like tax cuts, enable greater profits. While many burdensome regulations should be reduced, the recent ruling undoing “net neutrality” and others eliminating numerous workplace rules could trigger a backlash.
Automation, according to a Forrester study in April 2017, will displace 9.8 million U.S. jobs by 2027. Although that’s a far lower estimate than others of up to 70 million, it underscores the need to get serious about retraining workers. Armed with greater profits in 2018 and beyond, large employers could lead the way in addressing an issue that affects their ability to find qualified talent. Hopefully, we’ll see more collaboration between industry and higher education to develop muchneeded training programs.
Eventually, the media coverage of sexual harassment will subside and a new consciousness about gender relations should be reflected in the workplace. Hopefully, a more mature standard of behavior will emerge in 2018.
Only one development appears to be certain: The president will continue to live in the moment, using the power of his office and Twitter to call out people, issues and institutions. A thoughtful approach to such communications could serve a useful purpose. Will the public grow weary of the volume and tone of current communications, or will the entertainment value of presidential tweets continue to serve as catnip for those who like reality-show theatrics?
2018 will be a critical year for the news media, or the “fourth estate,” as described in 1787 by British political theorist Edmund Burke, whose writings influenced our Founding Fathers. The traditional media, which have been overwhelmed by a nation of self-styled communicators using social media, might not have the influence they once did. They can, however, partner with organizations including Facebook to further standards for fact-based journalism that will serve the best interests of all Americans. (An August 2017 Pew Research Center survey cited Facebook as the primary source of news for nearly 45 percent of Americans.)
Americans still proudly value their “commoner” roots. Let’s hope the leaders who represent us at all levels of government and society not lose sight of that perspective.