Talks significant but NKorea will hold firm

remember that while North Korea might halt the development and testing of nuclear weapons, the technology remains intact. Kim Jong Un’s regime can pretend it will denuclearize, say all of the right things and even destroy an intercontinental ballistic missile or two, but nothing significant really changes.

Kim Jong Un is undeniably looking to use his meeting with the U.S. president for his own good, and Trump needs to be careful he is not walking into a trap.

I suspect some negotiating has occurred to even get the North Koreans to the negotiating table. Because of the threat he poses to South Korea, I would imagine some money and possibly some food has crossed the border.

I am afraid that what is a big moment now — and the talks are a significant development — will be a laughable occasion 10 years from now. North Korea has proved it cannot be trusted, and the negotiations might be a way to toy with both the United States and South Korea. When all is said and done, Kim Jong Un still has his missile technology and, with it, the ability to resume his menacing ways.

Now that the rogue state is offering to pause its nuclear program if not its nuclear ambitions, look for North Korea to seek some concessions from the United States once the talks begin. For example, I would expect Kim Jong Un to request that joint military drills between the United States and South Korea be scaled back and for a lowering of the U.S. military presence in the South. While Kim Jong Un realizes that a total pullout of U.S. troops is not feasible, he will probably seek a reduction.

But for the time being, things are tending to look safer on the Korean peninsula. As a native of South Korea with family members back home, I find that heartening. However, as a political scientist who has studied the region, I doubt the long-term impact of what is currently transpiring.

Instead, I expect some short-term outcomes such as more cultural exchanges and some level of economic relationship between the two Koreas.

However, despite skepticism of truly lasting consequences, these talks are undeniably a significant event. Having the United States and North Korea engage in talks, with South Korea serving as the moderator, is unprecedented.

For now, there seems to be a hope for peace and a calmer presence in the east Asian region. While we embrace the moment, I fear it will be an interlude in this ongoing drama that Kim Jong Un creates, and the golden opportunity will appear tarnished in the long run.