5 senators merit most attention in Supreme Court fight

WASHINGTON — About this time last year, Americans were scrutinizing how the two Senate Republicans who favor abortion rights might vote on an Obamacare overhaul.

Now, Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are back in the spotlight as the Senate gears up to confirm a new Supreme Court justice. Along with three Democratic senators from red states — Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, all of whom are up for re-election this year — they make up the five senators whose votes will most aggressively be courted in the knockdown fight over President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Republicans are eager to replace Kennedy with a justice who would more consistently oppose abortion rights. And their best chance to do so is keeping Collins and Murkowski in their camp on a confirmation vote — that is, unless they’re able to win over a few moderate Democrats like the ones above.

Assuming Sen. John McCain of Arizona can’t make it to Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will have a one-vote margin to confirm Trump’s nominee, who is expected to move the court significantly rightward on a host of issues from abortion to gay rights to voting issues. So McConnell either needs all 50 Republicans on board with his plan — with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Mike Pence — or he’ll be depending on the support of two Democrats if Collins and Murkowski defect.

Both women did vote to confirm Justice Neil Gorsuch last year, but the stakes were different then. Gorsuch replaced the late conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, while Trump’s next nominee will replace Kennedy, the court’s longtime swing vote.

Both Collins and Murkowski will be facing immense pressure from abortion-rights activists to duck their party. So will Manchin, Donnelly and Collins Heitkamp

Heitkamp — the three moderate Democrats who joined Republicans to confirm Gorsuch. (Collins isn’t up for reelection until 2020; and Murkowski doesn’t face voters until 2022).

“Sens. Murkowski and Collins have already laid down the marker saying that they stand by Roe, they believe in legal access to abortion,” said NARAL Pro-Choice America president Ilyse Hogue. “It’s about upholding their word through this vote, and we’re going to make sure that the public support is there for them in their states and that there will be a lot of frustration and anger if they don’t.”

Collins and Murkowski are trying to downplay their influence as the pressure on them builds, The Washington Post reported.

“It’s been kind of interesting in this firestorm. Afterward, everyone is focused on Lisa and Susan,” Murkowski said. “If I were John or Jerry or Bill, I’d say, ‘Wait a minute. How come I’m not being viewed as an important voice in this process?’”

Collins said she wouldn’t ask Trump’s pick how he or she would rule on specific issues, but stressed that she always presses judicial nominees about their views on legal precedent. “I do get a sense from them on whether or not they respect precedent,” Collins said. “And from my perspective, Roe v. Wade is an important precedent and it is settled law.”

Both Republicans and the three Democrats met with Trump Wednesday evening at the White House to discuss the vacancy, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said. Murkowski