In this World Cup, there are no guarantees
As Joachim Loew considers all that went wrong for his German soccer team the past two weeks, all the factors that contributed to the reigning World Cup champion’s ignominious exit, one moment will cause him to cringe.
After Germany lost to Mexico in its opening game — deservedly, less happenstance than harbinger — Loew was told that the defending champion had been eliminated in the group stage in three of the previous four World Cups. He waved off the notion that Germany might go the same way.
“I guarantee we will be in the knockout round,” he said.
As the past two weeks have amply proved, this is not a World Cup where anyone should offer guarantees. Germany, the great constant of international soccer, the permanent semifinalist, has gone, to the delight of Brazil and England and the understated relief of Spain, France, Argentina and the rest.
Teams that remain, however, have seen Hector Herrera, right, and his Mexican teammates stunned the soccer world with a 1-0 win over Germany on June 17.
enough to know the dangers of hubris. Spain fired its manager on the eve of the tournament and came within a goal and a video review of an early exit. So did Portugal. Argentina has spent two weeks in an existential crisis and sneaked into the last 16 when its central defender scored with four minutes to play.
Even contenders whose progress has been more serene — Brazil, France, Belgium and England — can have little doubt that the old rules no longer
apply. Brazil has played only in flashes. France conceded one goal, but scored only three.
The most impressive performances have come from nations outside the established elite: Croatia’s ruthless demolition of a chaotic Argentina; Mexico’s perfectly planned, expertly executed exploitation of Germany’s flaws; Colombia’s riotous return to form against Poland.
This World Cup has belonged not to soccer’s great aristocratic houses but to its petite
bourgeoisie. Maybe we should have seen that coming, considering Argentina crept into the tournament by the skin of its teeth, and that the Dutch and the Italians failed to even qualify.
Of course, it is easy to say that after the group stage. For the first two weeks, the World Cup is a carnival as the planet is captivated by the color and noise and bravado of less familiar nations: the buccaneering spirit of Peru, the pride of Panama, the technical accomplishment (and rotten luck) of Morocco and Iran.
After that, the tournament becomes what it is meant to be: a competition. Tension sets in. Incentives change.
In the group stage, there is a premium on winning. It pays to attack, to score goals, to cast off fear and go for the throat. Knockout rounds are different. Now the vital thing is not to lose. That falters the experience, for players and viewers.
After all the unpredictability of the past two weeks, there is a startling familiarity to the knockout qualifiers (apart from Germany’s absence). Of the 16 remaining teams, 10 are from Europe and four are from South America. That leaves just Mexico and Japan from outside the two historically dominant confederations.
The instinct is to say that the surprises are done now, that the fun is over, that Russia 2018 will be like all other World Cups: a war of attrition in which the superpower with the deepest resources — in personnel, fortune, spirit and will — prevails.
Yet there is reason to hope. There is no outstanding team or pre-eminent coach. There is no evidence to establish that, say, Croatia or Uruguay should be afraid of Spain or France or Argentina.
Mexico picked off Germany, complacent and sluggish, nearly two weeks ago. Who is to say the same plan cannot work against Brazil?
The test for these teams will not be technical or tactical but psychological. Can Mexico see Brazil’s canary-yellow jerseys and resist the urge to shrink into themselves? Can they treat a knockout game as a group match? Can they shake off the fear of losing and focus on what it would mean to win? Can they retain that carnival spirit in the heat of competition?
Ordinarily, the answer is no. Eventually, history and experience start to tell. But this time, as Loew would acknowledge while Germany experiences the latter stages of the World Cup as an observer rather than a participant, it feels as if there can be no guarantees.