Signs of a Democratic House, and maybe Senate
pressure on President Donald Trump to compromise, greater oversight of his administration and, depending on events, a possible impeachment effort.
One of the most positive Democratic signs is their consistently strong showings in special elections for vacated House seats. Another looms next week in central Ohio, the last such test before the entire nation registers a judgment on Trump’s first two years.
In nine special congressional elections since he became president, Democrats outpolled their party’s base strength by an average of 8 points, according to Wasserman. A similar gain could enable Democrat Danny O’Connor to defeat Republican Troy Balderson Tuesday in a district Trump won by 11 points in 2016 and would likely foretell a Democratic House.
In those earlier special elections, Democrat Conor Lamb won a longtime GOP House seat in Pennsylvania and Democratic challengers cut Republican margins sharply in seven other races. The size of the gains roughly resembles those before the 2006 election, the last time Democrats took the House from Republicans. They’ll need that big a national swing, because Republicancontrolled redistricting in several states has solidified the GOP majority since 2010.
Another good signal is Democratic fundraising. Recent statistics showed that challengers outraised Republican incumbents in 36 of the 40 congressional districts the Cook Political Report rates as the most competitive in November.
Democrats have generally succeeded in nominating candidates whose views fit the districts they hope to represent, notwithstanding the highly publicized primary victories of a Democratic Socialist in New York and a few strong liberals elsewhere.
Most are stressing traditional economic issues like health care and playing down the prospect a Democratic House could seek Trump’s impeachment.
Republicans, meanwhile, are echoing Trump in stressing issues like immigration and crime in hopes of spurring maximize GOP turnout.
A comparable debate is occurring in the Ohio race to replace longtime GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, who resigned from the seat he won in 2016 by better than 2 to 1. Preelection indicators suggest a close outcome; two recent polls showed Balderson slightly ahead, but The Columbus Dispatch said Democratic absentee ballot requests and early voting are double the rate among Republicans, a reversal from 2016.
Another problem Republicans face nationally is that independents who voted for Trump are trending back to the Democrats.
Meanwhile, the battle for the Senate is tightening. Until now, most analysts have agreed the fact that 10 Democrats are seeking re-election in states won by Trump will give Republicans enough victories to at least maintain — and possibly expand — their current 51-49 margin.
But last week, Sean Trende, an analyst for Real Clear Politics, tweeted “Democrats no worse than 50-50 to take over the Senate.” Others remain skeptical.
Polls show Democrats close or leading for three Republican-held seats in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee. And most Democratic incumbents in those 10 Trump states are at least holding their own, if not ahead. A new analysis by Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman suggests they may be less vulnerable than thought. In past midterm elections, 90 percent of incumbents survived in states the other party carried in the prior presidential election
One thing is certain: the 116th Congress and Washington will look a lot different from the Republican-controlled 115th Congress. Next week’s Ohio race may give another signal how different.