Lake Erie algae blooms not as bad as expected

Algae blooms on Lake Erie weren’t as bad this year as scientists had forecast, according to a seasonal assessment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Researchers use a 1-to-10 scale to rate the severity of microcystis cyanobacteria, or harmful algae blooms, each season. This year, the bloom severity was forecast at 6. At the end of the season, scientists determined it was really 3.6.

“Based on observations throughout the summer, I wasn’t that surprised,” said Laura Johnson, director of the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University.

Predictions are based on the amount of phosphorus detected from the Maumee River in the spring and early summer. The bloom season runs from July to October. Until this year, the predictions were pretty accurate, Johnson said.

It’s unclear why the prediction was off, but researchers will investigate, she said.

This season was atypical because the blooms started earlier — in late June — after Lake Erie had warmed up at the end of May.

There were also several storms, including a significant one on Sept. 9-10. As a result of that storm, the waves on the lake were choppy, which disrupted the blooms. They never returned, Johnson said.

Each year, scientists project the size of the Gulf of Mexico’s dead zone, an area of low oxygen that can kill fish and marine life, but hurricanes can throw off predictions.

“In some way, I wonder if that happened here,” Johnson said.

This year could affect future forecasts. For example, scientists might give a range or add language stipulating that the forecast is valid when conditions are optimal for blooms, she said.

Joe Cornely, spokesman for the Ohio Farm Bureau, said the assessment shows there’s more to learn about algae blooms on Lake Erie.

“I think it drives home that there’s a lot at play at what causes the lake problems,” he said. “We’re certainly not taking 100 percent credit for this, but I think it points out we shouldn’t get 100 percent of the blame, either.”

The Maumee and Sandusky rivers are the largest suppliers of phosphorus into Lake Erie — with 87 percent of the phosphorus coming from areas in northwestern and northern Ohio where most of the land is used for farming, according to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

In July, Gov. John Kasich issued an executive order to designate as in distress eight watersheds that drain into the western basin of Lake Erie. The designation would restrict farmers’ use of fertilizers that cause the blooms.

On Thursday, the Ohio Soil and Water Conservation Commission will meet and could vote on Kasich’s request or return it to a task force for more study.