Group expects retail sales to keep growing

NEW YORK — The nation’s largest retail trade group forecasts that retail sales will grow between 3.8 and 4.4 percent to as much as $3.8 trillion this year as shoppers remain in the mood to spend amid a strong economy and job market.

The National Retail Federation’s forecast, released Tuesday, is nearly in line with the 4.6 percent gain the group preliminarily estimated for 2018 pending the release of December data from the Commerce Department that was delayed because of the government shutdown. The figures exclude sales from automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Still, the trade group acknowledges that an ongoing trade war with China and a volatile stock market could threaten this year’s growth. The current forecast doesn’t take into consideration the specter of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese products rising to 25 percent from 10 percent, as is scheduled for March 1. The group says that the impact of the government shutdown has been difficult to measure, but that it had little effect on spending last month.

“We can’t get too hung up on noise ... The truth is that the consumer continues to be in a very good place,” said Matt Shay, the trade group’s president and CEO.

Shay added that the biggest priority is to ensure the economy continues to grow and to avoid “selfinflicted wounds.”

“It’s time for artificial problems like trade wars and shutdowns to end, and to focus on prosperity, not politics,” Shay added.

Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the trade group, expects retailers will continue to increase wages but that the hikes won’t necessarily translate into inflation.