Sudan’s military, opposition strike power-sharing deal
Worries remain that allies of toppled autocrat will keep power
KHARTOUM, Sudan — In a landmark agreement reached Friday, Sudan’s opposition and military leaders tentatively pledged to hold new elections in just over three years.
After months of protests and violence, the announcement was greeted with street celebrations in the capital, Khartoum, although more broadly it generated only tepid optimism.
Many people worry that the involvement of notorious military leaders in Sudan’s planned transition to civilian rule suggests that the country will follow a well-worn playbook that doomed almost all of the popular uprisings in the Arab world in 2011: The strongman falls, but his allies remain.
In April, persistent street protests forced Sudan’s president Omar al-bashir from office after three decades of rule. Bashir was an autocratic leader who kept a tight grip on the country; his government repressed civil rights and launched violent campaigns against ethnic minorities.
Bashir was the latest Arab leader to be forced out by pro-democracy activists since the Arab Spring saw the fall of autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and more recently, Algeria. But in the aftermath of Bashir’s overthrow, his military allies have learned a critical post-arab Spring lesson: stepping-in to “preserve” the revolution often means having total say over how the country moves forward.
In Egypt, post-revolutionary democratic fervor has been replaced by a repressive, military-backed government. In Libya and Yemen, conflicts continue to rage in which former regime figures have been central players. Even in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, insiders from the country’s autocratic past have regained political sway.
Sudan’s protesters are well-aware of the risks. At the heights of protests, some held signs that read: “We don’t want to be like Egypt.”
On Friday, a mediator for the African Union announced that Sudan’s opposition and military leaders had reached a power-sharing deal that works toward elections and civilian rule. The deal calls for military leaders to retain control for the next 21 months before passing power to a newly created joint sovereign council and then eventually to civilians.
The joint council, which had been a sticking point in the negotiations, is to include five civilians representing the protest movement and five military members. An 11th seat will go to a civilian chosen by both sides.
Omer El-digair, a leader of the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change, a coalition representing the protesters, said they hope that forming the transitional institutions “marks the beginning of a new era.”
“We hope it is an era where we can shut off the sound of pistols and destroy for good prisons of arbitrary detention,” he said at a news conference.
Tarek Abdel Meguid, another FDFC leader, told The Associated Press that pro-democracy leaders had to make concessions to avoid further bloodshed.
“I am not fully satisfied, but it is a step forward to bring peace to our people,” Abdel Meguid said. “We had a civilian revolution, and the very idea of power sharing with the military was already rejected by the Sudanese people, but this is what the balance of power dictated.”
Although the agreement stipulates that those involved in violence should not be allowed into a postdeal government, it does not exclude Sudan’s most infamous military leader: Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti.
Hemedti is part of a ruling military council seen by many in Sudan as an extension of Bashir’s rule. The military has suppressed protests since the president stepped down, including a recent incident in which at least 100 protesters were killed.
As leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Hemedti has been accused of links to some of the worst violence against protesters. Years ago, at the height of ethnic violence in Darfur, he headed the notorious Janjaweed militia that is estimated to have killed thousands in what was labeled a genocide.
Although once Bashir’s enforcer, Hemedti is presenting himself as Sudan’s savior. Officially, he is the deputy to the head of the transitional military council, Abdel Fattah al-burhan, a veteran lieutenant general, but many people believe that Hemedti holds the real power.
Khalid Mustafa Medani, an associate professor at Mcgill University, said Friday’s agreement was cause for optimism, given the unity of the opposition, the promise of an independent inquiry into the mass killings last month, and real concern about Hemedti in Europe and the United States.
However, Medani said the worry is that regime figures might be able to use delaying tactics or try to divide and co-opt the civilian opposition before the planned handover.
“At this juncture, the role of the international community is extremely important,” he added.
H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London and the Atlantic Council in Washington, said that while many of the underlying political and social factors that sparked the 2011 uprisings remain in place, pro-democracy movements often fail to make a compelling argument for why they should oversee reform.
“It is easy to see why autocrats, particularly because they are backed by such power, have the upper hand at the moment,” Hellyer said. “I am not sure that is a winning formula for the long term.” • Henry Corbin, with his wife, Polexany, tried to open saloons in Westerville in the 1870s, but his bars were blown up by the locals. He eventually moved to Columbus. Because of an editor’s error, a photo caption on Page A8 of Friday’s Dispatch incorrectly stated where the couple moved.
• Airstream is based in Jackson Center, Ohio. Due to an editor’s error, a brief on Page B10 of Friday’s Dispatch included an incorrect location.