Scientists: Expect ‘floodier future’ as sea levels rise

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. — The federal government is warning Americans to brace for a “floodier” future.

Government scientists predict 40 places in the United States will experience higher-than-normal rates of so-called “sunny day flooding” this year because of rising sea levels and an abnormal El Nino weather system.

A report released this past week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that sunny day flooding, also known as tidal flooding, will continue to increase.

“The future is already here, a floodier future,” said William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer and lead author of the study.

The report predicts that annual flood records will be broken again next year — and for years and decades to come — from sea-level rise.

“Flooding that decades ago usually happened only during a powerful or localized storm can now happen when a steady breeze or a change in coastal current overlaps with a high tide,” it said.

The nationwide average frequency of sunny day flooding in 2018 was five days a year, tying a record set in 2015.

The agency says the level of sunny day flooding in the United States has doubled since 2000.

Nationwide, the agency predicted, average sunny day flooding could reach 7 to 15 days a year by 2030, and 25 to 75 days a year by 2050.

“We cannot wait to act,” said Nicole Leboeuf, acting director of NOAA’S Ocean Service. “This issue gets more urgent and complicated with every passing day.”

Global sea levels are rising at a rate of about 3 millimeters a year, or about an inch every eight years, according to Rutgers University researchers, who predict that by 2050, seas off New Jersey will rise by an additional 1.4 feet.

The study noted that over this past year, floods affected traffic in northeast states, swamped septic systems in Florida and choked Delaware and Maryland coastal farms with salt water.

Baltimore experienced 12 days of high-tide flooding from 1902 to 1936. But just this past year, it experienced the same number of 12 days — in 12 months.

Robert Kopp, a leading climate scientist with Rutgers University said the study confirms many wellestablished trends.

“It’s simple arithmetic: If you have higher sea level, you will have tides causing flooding,” he said. “We’re not talking about disaster flooding. We’re talking about repetitive flooding that disrupts people’s lives on a daily basis. It’s sometimes called ‘nuisance flooding,’ but it has real impacts and costs.”

High-tide flooding is causing problems that include beach erosion, overwhelmed sewer and drinking water systems, closed roads, disrupted harbor operations, degraded infrastructure and reduced property values — problems that “are nearly certain to get much worse this century,” the report read.

The report’s statistics cover May 2018 through April 2019.

NOAA forecasts sunny day flooding this year in Boston at 12 to 19 days compared with 19 days last year; New York, 8 to 13 days (12 last year); Norfolk, Virginia, 10 to 15 days compared with 10 last year; Charleston, South Carolina, 4 to 7 days compared with 5 last year; Pensacola, Florida, 2 to 5 days compared with 4 last year; Sabine Pass, Texas, 6 to 13 days compared with 8 last year; and Eagle Point, Texas, 29 to 40 days, when there were 27 last year.

West Coast predictions included San Diego, with

5 to 9 days compared with 8 last year; Los Angeles, 1 to 4 days compared with 5 last year; Humboldt Bay, California, 6 to 12 days compared with 12 last year; and Toke Point, Washington, 9 to 21 days compared with 12 last year.