Brazil’s president won’t change unfiltered ways

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has a clear message for allies and critics alike after a slew of incendiary comments: I am not going to change.

Over the past few weeks, Bolsonaro has threatened a journalist with jail, mocked the dead father of Brazil’s Bar Association president and canceled a meeting with the French foreign minister to have his hair cut during a Facebook Live appearance.

Whether this brutal break with standard presidential decorum will have any political consequences remains an open question. Polls show he has lost popular approval faster than any other president since the return to democracy, but for the time being investors are shrugging off any concerns as his government makes steady progress on economic reforms.

Like U.S. President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro has a solid support base who voted for him fully cognizant of his unfiltered style. But unlike his U.S. counterpart, Bolsonaro doesn’t control a significant faction in Congress. And with the presidency determined by popular vote, he’ll need some moderates if he’s to win re-election.

“The president ought to watch out because if the economy doesn’t improve, things could rapidly spiral out of control,” Andre de Paula, leader of the PSD, said. The PSD is one of a handful of centrist parties that Bolsonaro relies on to muster the necessary support for his reform agenda in Congress. “Impeachment is always a risk for a tainted government in a bad economic scenario.”

Bolsonaro, however, says that he’s not for turning. In an interview with O Globo this past week, he said his provocative remarks were not part of a grand strategy. “I’m like that,” he said.

A poll published Thursday showed Bolsonaro’s approval rating stood at 31%, down almost 2 percentage points since June. Just over 39% of respondents consider his government “bad” or “terrible.”

The president repeatedly has questioned the narrative of Brazil’s military dictatorship, recently claiming falsely that one of the country’s most prominent journalists lied about her torture during the period. He’s disparaged Brazilians from the country’s impoverished northeast, trashed claims that hunger remains a policy challenge, and accused the National Institute of Space Research of manipulating data on deforestation.

But for Renato Nobile, president of Genial Advisory, a financial advisory firm, the government’s progress on its reform agenda will soon start to have an impact on the economy.

“The moment is so good that, even with the president talking rubbish, the impact is zero,” he said.

For members of Bolsonaro’s PSL party in Congress, the president is merely being consistent. “No one is surprised by Bolsonaro’s style,” Junior Bozzella, a PSL lawmaker, said. “It’s the same Bolsonaro from the campaign. No one had the wool pulled over their eyes.”

A move that has alarmed some supporters is Bolsonaro’s decision to appoint his son Eduardo, a federal lawmaker, to the U.S. embassy in Washington. Though the nomination requires Senate approval, Bolsonaro appears increasingly confident — following the blessing of Trump himself — that it’s effectively a done deal.