Census will reveal Ohio’s changing face

By now, nearly everyone should have received multiple notices to complete a 2020 census form.

Given the high stakes, both economic and political, government leaders at every level have been urging residents to complete the form — by mail, phone or online.

To chase down those who haven’t responded, census takers will fan out the old-fashioned way — house to house — between August and October.

By December, the Census Bureau will deliver the allimportant apportionment counts to the president and Congress, determining allocation among the states of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

By March, the bureau will send redistricting counts to the states, beginning the highly partisan process of drawing maps for both congressional and state legislative districts.

For Ohio, the official 2020 census is expected to deliver mostly sobering news based on a stagnant population count of about 11.7 million.

For starters, the state is virtually certain to lose another congressional seat, reducing Ohio’s delegation to 15. Ohio maxed out at 24 seats following the 1960 census and has lost seats every decade since.

Border states Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia also are projected to lose seats, further reducing the region’s political clout in Washington.

Although Ohio will retain its ranking as the nation’s seventh-largest state, trends show Georgia and North Carolina likely to leapfrog Ohio within a decade or two.

Across Ohio’s 88 counties, 62 are expected to show population losses or insignificant gains. Rural Ohio continues its slow drain of people.

The state’s only robust population growth is taking place in the seven counties of central Ohio as well as three counties bordering Hamilton County and within Cincinnati’s metropolitan area.

For once-mighty Cuyahoga County, with Cleveland as its county seat, the 2020 census will mark a half-century of population declines. Among the six counties bordering Cuyahoga, only two — Lorain and Medina — are expected to show population gains.

For central Ohio, the census will reconfirm its steady march toward statewide economic and political dominance. Central Ohio has been gaining momentum since 1950, when the region accounted for less than one-tenth of Ohio’s population.

The 2020 census will show the region holding over one-fifth of the state’s population, and on a trajectory to reach one-fourth in two or three decades.

The continuing growth of central Ohio will sharpen the policymaking focus on transportation, workforce development and affordable housing, and, possibly, further regionalization of some services.

Statewide, the census will emphasize the graying of Ohio — a median age of nearly 39.5, more than three years above the national average.

The exclamation point on this trend: The number of Ohioans aged 60 and over will outnumber those under 20. Just two decades ago, none of Ohio’s 88 counties had populations where residents 60 and over outnumbered those under 20. In the newest census, more than half of the counties are expected to show this.

By 2050, demographers project nearly 1 in 4 Ohioans will be 60 or older, compared to 1 in 5 now. Only a few other states, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast, will be as gray.

The percentage of Ohioans of prime working (and taxpaying) age, between 20 and 59, is projected to decrease from 54% now to 50% by 2050. For public officials, that will increase the pressure of balancing acceptable tax rates with expectations for public services, especially health care.

Governing won’t get easier.

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