Airlines struggling to reverse plunge
In a bid to survive, airlines are desperately trying to convince a wary public that measures like mandatory face masks and hospital-grade air filters make sitting in a plane safer than many other indoor settings during the coronavirus pandemic. It's not going so well. Surveys indicate that instead of growing comfortable with air travel, more people are becoming skeptical about it. In the United States, airline bookings have stalled in the past month after slowly rising — a reaction to a new surge of reported virus infections.
Globally, air travel is down more than 85% from a year ago, according to industry figures.
The implications for the airline industry are grave. Several leading carriers have filed for bankruptcy protection, and if the hoped-for recovery is delayed much longer, the list will grow.
The four largest U.S. airlines lost a combined $10 billion from April through June. Their CEOS say they will survive, but they have lowered their expectations for a rebound.
“We were all hoping that by the fall the virus might run its course,” Southwest
Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said. “Obviously, that has proven to be dead wrong.”
When Consumer Reports surveyed more than 1,000 people in June about their comfort with various activities during the pandemic, 70% said flying was very or somewhat unsafe. They rated going to a hospital emergency room or standing in line to vote as safer.
In a survey commissioned by an airline trade group, the biggest concern of travelers was the possibility of sitting next to an infected person.
John Kontak, a schoolteacher from Phoenix, said that was his fear as soon as he stepped onto a crowded American
Airlines flight this summer to visit his parents in Ohio.
“I don’t know anything about this person who is sitting a foot away from me,” Kontak said.
“Next time,” he added, “I’d rather drive back to Ohio than fly.”
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says sitting within 6 feet of other passengers may increase the risk of getting COVID-19, but it also notes that most viruses don’t spread easily on flights because of how air circulates on planes.
Some airlines leave seats empty to create room between passengers. Others do not, arguing that social distancing is impossible on a plane.
Standard & Poor’s said last week that the industry’s prospects have gone “from bad to worse,” with global air traffic dropping by up to 70% this year. In May, S&P said a 55% drop was a worst-case scenario.
An airline trade group, the International Air Transport Association, predicts carriers will lose $84 billion this year, making it the worst year in the industry’s history. The group predicts that traffic won’t fully recover until 2024.
Asia, where outbreaks were brought under control earlier, is doing better than the U.S. and Europe. Domestic travel inside China has recovered to about two-thirds its year-ago level. In the U.S., traffic is less than one-third of 2019 levels.
The situation is worse in Europe, where air traffic at its more than 500 airports has tumbled, down 94% in June compared with the same month last year.
Travel ticked up when more than two dozen European countries opened borders to one another in early July, but rising virus cases has led to reimposed restrictions.
In the United States, traffic picked up after collapsing by 95% in April, but has stalled — down 74% in July and 72% in August.
In the U.S., Trans States, Compass and Alaska-based Ravn Air have shut down, but the big airlines have survived thanks to billions in government aid and billions more in private borrowing.