Trump rallies, Biden ads — which wins?
Ohioans haven’t seen appreciable TV ads from President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign in weeks.
But Trump is holding rallies at the Dayton and Toledo airports on Monday, Vice President Mike Pence was in Zanesville on Wednesday, Donald Trump Jr. showed up in Lima and Cincinnati a week earlier, and the president appeared in Cleveland and Clyde last month.
Ohioans haven’t seen Joe Biden or Kamala Harris in person in months.
But the Biden campaign has dominated TV airwaves in the Buckeye State with multiple commercials for weeks.
Which is the way to win this bellwether state?
“You are seeing a little bit of the difference between traditional and unconventional campaign styles,” said Mark Caleb Smith, director of the Center for
Political Studies at Cedarville University in southwestern Ohio.
“President Trump has always preferred rallies and mass events. He believes it generates enthusiasm as well as some level of free media coverage. In the modern era, this is highly unusual. Vice President Biden’s approach, to rely on television spending, is far more typical for this era.”
Trump has been staging live events for weeks despite the warnings by government officials about the dangers of large, mostly mask-free gatherings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden and Harris still confine much of their activity to virtual events — Jill Biden spoke remotely to Ohio campaign volunteers Saturday — although they’ve ventured out more in recent weeks, wearing masks and practicing social distancing.
Both Biden and Trump will be in Ohio on Sept. 29 for their first debate, in Cleveland on the Health Education Campus of Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic.
“We’re excited to welcome Vice President Biden to the Buckeye State in a few short days for the first presidential debate,” said Toni Webb, director of Biden’s campaign in Ohio.
“As President Trump continues to hold events that disregard his own administration’s guidance during this pandemic, Biden for President is engaging with voters strategically and safely — over the airwaves, and by directly connecting with Ohioans one-on-one as we continue to grow a diverse coalition of support that will help defeat President Trump in November.”
In the past two weeks, Trump has shifted TV money among several states. Ohio was cut the most by far, losing more than $2 million worth of TV slots while states such as Florida, North Carolina and Arizona each received more than $1 million more apiece, analytics from Advertising Age show. The recap noted that some of Trump’s Ohio money could have been re-directed to later weeks, too.
At the same time, Biden increased his TV presence in Ohio, which is one of the 10 states receiving most of his on-screen focus.
Smith noted multiple reports of a financial crunch for the Trump campaign.
“This decision could be driven by money. Recent reporting suggests that Biden’s August fundraising totals were so large that he has the funds to spend on commercials. President Trump, from what we know, is struggling with cash on hand. Holding a large rally is probably cheaper than an advertising campaign.”
Trump spent significant amounts on Ohio TV commercials during the summer while Biden was dark, although the president had very little to show for it. Polls after his ad buy still indicated a tight race in a state he took by more than 8 points in 2016.
It’s worth noting that Trump won Ohio even though Hillary Clinton was on the state’s TV sets from summer through Election Day.
The current contrast between the Biden and Trump campaigns could simply reveal two different approaches to winning Ohio, Smith said.
“Trump may be convinced that he only needs to maximize his base in Ohio to win. Rallies, enthusiasm and social media traffic could be enough to do that. Biden, in contrast, may believe he has to persuade at least some of the voters who voted for Trump in 2016 to vote for him instead. Advertising will reach more accidental and casual eyes, whereas public events may not,” the Cedarville professor said.
Speaking of social media, Trump and the Republicans are far outdistancing Biden and the Democrats on Facebook. In the past 90 days, the president and the Republican National Committee have shelled out more than $3 million for Facebook ads for Ohio, compared to less than $1 million for Biden, according to Acronym, a liberal analytics firm in Washington, D.C.
“For all intents and purposes, Ohio is very much Trump’s state to lose,” the analysis concluded. “He won the state by 8 points in 2016, but if he loses it this year, he can probably kiss the Oval Office goodbye.”
Also helping to make up for Trump’s current shortcoming in TV ads is Republicans’ ground game: the phonecalling and door-to-door campaigning that’s been going on for months to support the electronics war.
“The Democrats simply cannot compete with our unprecedented ground game,“Trump’s Ohio campaign spokesman Daniel Lusheck said in early August, marking the “Buckeye Battalion’s” knocking on its millionth door, on top of contacts with more than 8 million voters. Newer figures were unavailable.
Vice President Mike Pence underscored the importance of Ohio when he visited Zanesville last week and expressed confidence that Trump again would prevail in a state that no Republican has lost on his way to the White House.
“President Donald Trump understands working people in this country,” Pence said.
“It’s because everything President Trump told the people of Ohio he would do, particularly when it comes to the economy.”
Biden says he has the same special relationship with workers.
“They know me,” the former vice president said during his last stop in Ohio on March 10 at a Columbus community center. “And these are the folks who always supported me.”
Trump scheduled rallies at airports near Toledo and Dayton have drawn the ire of local Democratic officials.
“Over the past few months, Lucas County residents have practiced social distancing, worn masks outside of the home and slowed the spread of COVID-19,” said Rep. Lisa Sobecki, one of three Toledo state lawmakers issuing statements.
“Doing so has allowed us to be downgraded from red to orange on the Ohio Public Health Advisory System. Unfortunately, now the upcoming rally next week, without appropriate health guidelines in place, threatens all of that progress.”
Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley said, “Any time President Trump travels, I worry that we’re going to have a spike in COVID. He doesn’t social distance or encourage mask wearing. He pretty much shows off his failure of leadership wherever he goes.” drowland@dispatch.com @darreldrowland