Can GOP sweep state anew in ’22?
Dewine, Portman, others are running
Being swept in three straight election cycles – batting 0 for 15 – does not engender optimism that better times await Ohio Democrats in 2022.
By the time the mid-term election rolls around, the party will have marked 16 years – since 2006, when they won all offices but auditor – without a single candidate winning statewide executive office.
And the Nov. 3 election did nothing to lay groundwork for Democrats to succeed in two years with a U.S. Senate seat and the statewide executive offices all on the line – and all occupied by Republican incumbents.
Outside local-office gains in urban cores grown even more Democratic, it was slim pickings for the party, which
lost seats in the Ohio General Assembly on Nov. 3 – even amid the House Bill 6 bribery scandal on the watch of the majority GOP.
As shown by Republican President Donald Trump’s repeat 8-point win in Ohio, downtrodden Democrats must find a way to reconnect with and retain rural and disaffected blue-collar workers who don’t see their future as resting with the donkey crowd.
The Ohio GOP looks to have its entire team returning for re-election in 2022, led by the man at the top, Gov. Mike DeWine.
“I’m focused on the virus and focused on protecting Ohioans and getting Ohioans back to work, but yes, I will run for re-election,” Dewine said after the election. Lt. Gov. Jon Husted has aspirations for the boss’s job but likely will await 2026.
While his ratings for handling the pandemic are solid, Dewine has been a target of far-right conservatives and some legislative Republicans who chafe at his public health orders and restrictions accompanying the still-exploding coronavirus pandemic.
The state’s oldest governor – now 73 – could face a primary challenge from a disgruntled upstart, but it’s difficult to perceive one with the credibility and cash to take down the patriarch of Republican politics in Ohio
Running against Dewine would not be cheap. He raised and spent a record $35.6 million on his 2018 campaign, overwhelming Democrat Richard Cordray, who raised a once-thought-respectable $19.5 million.
Former Congressman Jim Renacci of Wadsworth, who lost to Democrat Sherrod Brown in the 2018 Senate race, has remained politically active. He is no fan of Dewine, writing that the state is “committing economic suicide” with its handling of the pandemic. Some think the ex-congressman is laying the groundwork for a run.
On the Democratic side, there again could be no shortage of would-be gubernatorial candidates, similar to 2018, when opponents fell to the wayside and gave way to Cordray, who lost to Dewine by nearly 4 percentage points.
Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley, who is term-limited next year, is openly exploring a run for governor, even taking trips to southeastern Ohio to to gauge support and spread his name.
Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who for a period was among the Democrats pursuing the 2018 gubernatorial nomination, is taking a deep-dive look at a statewide run, assessing whether to opt for the U.S. Senate or the governor’s office.
Her profile was elevated, sadly, by last year’s mass shooting in Dayton that left nine people dead in 32 seconds, leading her to campaign for firearms restrictions.
“I’m not ruling anything out right now,” Whaley said. “I’m trying to figure out where I can best serve. ... Frankly, that might be to stay as mayor of Dayton.”
Whaley drew the most support in a Dispatch survey of Democratic National Convention delegates. Asked who they believed was the strongest challenger to Dewine, more than a third of respondents picked Whaley, who regularly talks with the governor.
Republican Rob Portman is expected to seek his third term in the U.S. Senate in 2022, with his generally steadfast support of Trump and vote for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Any Coney Barrett marking him as an even bigger target for Democrats.
Still, incumbency, Portman’s fundraising chops and the failure of even a former governor, Ted Strickland, to come within 20 percentage points of Portman in 2016 demonstrates that he could be difficult for a Democrat to take out.
U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-niles, could be positioned for a long-speculated run at Portman amid redistricting and Ohio’s anticipated loss of a seat in Congress. More than 4 in 10 delegates in the Dispatch’s survey said that Ryan, a shortlived presidential contender, was the best option against Portman.
Attorney General Dave Yost will seek another term and expects the current lineup of GOP executive officeholders to all seek re-election. “It’s a long way to 2022, but I think the team has a lot to be proud of, a good record to run on,” he said.
Yost and the remainder of the team – Secretary of State Frank Larose, Auditor Keith Faber and Treasurer Robert Sprague – did not post blowout wins in 2018, but they have gained more familiarity, established fundraising and hold the upper hand of incumbency.
Democratic insiders say it remains muddy, the inevitable sorting out still to come, on who might run for down-ticket executive offices. Some see Columbus City Attorney Zach Klein in a potential matchup with Yost. Former U.S. Attorney Steve Dettelbach, who lost to Yost in 2018, could remain in the fray.
Others who could be in the mix for other offices include a pair of big-county recorders – Franklin’s Danny O’connor, who gave Rep. Troy Balderson, R-zanesville, a scare in a 2018 special election, and Hamilton’s Aftab Pureval. Both are lawyers, so they hold those credentials to potentially run for attorney general, as well.
House Minority Leader Emilia Strong
Sykes, D-akron, appears on some Democrats’ wish lists for a run at statewide office. Kathleen Clyde, who ran against Larose in 2018, was labeled a rising Democratic star poised for a return statewide run. But a blemish arose – she lost her seat as Portage County commissioner on Tuesday. State Rep. Casey Weinstein, DHudson, also is said to be contemplating a run for statewide office.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, the only statewide elected Democrat excluding the Ohio Supreme Court, concedes that the state’s Republican entrenchment makes “it difficult for Democrats ... but it is still a winnable state.”
He said he hopes redistricting next year will rein in GOP gerrymandering, giving Democrats a better shot at making gains in the U.S. House (where not a seat flipped in the past decade) and the General Assembly. “I recognize we have a lot of work to do still.”
Brown declined to name names, but he said that Democrats have a “good crop” of mayors, lawmakers and others to run for statewide office in 2022.
Democrats, who narrowed the Republican majority on the Ohio Supreme Court to 4-3 with the rare bright spot of Jennifer Brunner defeating Judith French on Tuesday, has another shot at control of the court in 2022 with three seats at stake.
The chief justice’s seat at the center of the bench will open with Republican Maureen O’connor departing due to reaching the mandatory Ohio judicial retirement age of 70. And Republican Justices Patrick Fischer and Pat DeWine, the governor’s son, presumably will seek their second six-year terms in ‘22.
Former Congresswoman Betty Sutton, Cordray’s running mate, was just elected to the Akron-based 9th District Ohio Court of Appeals and already is being mentioned as a court candidate.
@Randyludlow
The state’s oldest governor – Mike Dewine, now 73 – could face a primary challenge from a disgruntled upstart, but it’s difficult to perceive one with the credibility and cash to take down the patriarch of Republican politics in Ohio