Curfew effect limited, experts say
A statewide curfew imposed by Gov. Mike Dewine this week will likely prevent a few coronavirus infections, but is unlikely to alter the upward trajectory of new coronavirus cases, infectious disease experts said.
The 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew exempts anyone getting groceries, ordering takeout from a restaurant, traveling to and from work, acquiring medical care, or otherwise pursuing necessary activities.
In a news conference Tuesday, DeWine said the curfew targets late-night activities known to encourage coronavirus spread.
“Despite the health order that limited mass gatherings to 10 people that was signed in April remaining in effect, we have seen rampant spread of the virus as a result of banquets, wedding receptions and social gatherings following funerals,” Dewine said.
“We have seen great tragedy associated with such events. It’s not the ceremonies causing the problem, it’s the party afterward.”
Spiking coronavirus cases prompted
Dewine’s decision. The state has reported thousands of cases in recent days, with the number of daily cases eclipsing 8,000 for the first time on Nov. 13. COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has killed more than 5,800 Ohioans since March.
While generally supporting the curfew, however, experts largely agree that it falls short of what is needed.
“(Congregating) at bars and other activities tend to be very close knit after hours,” said Dr. Joel Kammeyer, an assistant professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toledo. “Eliminating those possibilities for transmission are the idea behind curfews.”
However, Kammeyer said he’s unaware of any evidence that such restrictions can truly curb coronavirus infections.
“The virus itself doesn’t respect curfews,” he said.
Dr. Iahn Gonsenhauser, chief quality and patient safety officer at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, doubts the curfew will curb infections because so many people don’t take coronavirus guidelines or restrictions seriously. Pictures of college parties and
crowded bars have circulated on social media and in news reports in recent weeks, and finding Ohioans who refuse to wear masks isn’t difficult.
“We’ve seen very clearly over the past six months that, if given a choice, a significant portion of the population is going to choose the thing that isn’t safe,” he said.
So-called superspreader events are typically private gatherings with large numbers of people, and often take place at night, said Dr. Joe Gastaldo, an infectious disease specialist at the OhioHealth system of hospitals.
While Dewine stressed that the curfew is not intended to target bars and restaurants, Gastaldo said that late night activities at those venues are conducive to COVID-19’S spread.
“I would challenge anybody to drive down to the Short North or Ohio State’s campus during the hours of 10 p.m. to midnight,” he said.
“You perhaps see people standing close together waiting in line, and when you get people in the bars, especially when people are celebrating or perhaps under the influence (of alcohol), that makes it more challenging to be compliant with the best mitigation strategies.”
Gastaldo stressed, however, that private gatherings seem to be the biggest source of COVID-19 infections.
The majority of recent infections are among Ohioans between the ages of 20 and 40 years old, according to the Ohio Department of Health. Young people are more likely to patronize bars late at night, Gastaldo said.
Bar and restaurant owners say they’ve complied with mask requirements and social distancing guidelines, and spend thousands of dollars on cleaning supplies and plexiglass barriers at a time when patronage has fallen. They stress that contact tracers have tracked few cases to bars and restaurants, but public health officials caution that pinpointing the precise moment of infection is often impossible.
Any measure that discourages people from coming into close contact is a step in the right direction, said Dr. Mark Cameron, a professor in the school of medicine at Case Western Reserve University.
“But will this be effective in stopping the curve as we know it in Ohio? I don’t think so,” he said.
Cameron credited Dewine for finding a compromise between no change and a second stay-at-home order.
“This is an attempt to bring something extra to our toolbox by capping the end of the day as best they can for people,” he said. “But it’s just that, an attempt.”
A curfew violation can result in a second degree misdemeanor, which is punishable by a fine of up to $750 and jail sentence of as much as 90 days.
The curfew seems intended to help businesses by allowing them to stay open, but Gonsenhauser worries the measure will ultimately drag on the state’s economy by allowing coronavirus spread to continue.
“We’re making decisions that are short-sighted and a bit myopic,” he said. “In the long run, it will be detrimental to the business community.”
While gatherings at businesses can be curtailed, other dangerous activities like parties inside a home are more difficult to regulate, experts said.
“I think what’s driving a bigger increase is what people are doing in their private lives,” Gastaldo said. pcooley@dispatch.com @Patrickacooley