New UK COVID-19 variant might be 30% deadlier
LONDON – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Friday that a coronavirus variant first detected in the country in September might be about 30% deadlier than previous versions of the disease.
British scientists had concluded that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30% to 70% faster than the previous dominant coronavirus strain in the U.K.
In addition to spreading faster, “it may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” Johnson said.
Patrick Vallance, Johnson’s chief scientific adviser, explained the previous average death rate of 60-year-olds in Britain from COVID-19 was about 10 per 1,000.
With the new variant, roughly 13 or 14 out of 1,000 infected people might be expected to die, he said.
“I want to stress there’s a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this (variant, B117) has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility,” Vallance said.
The conclusions were based on findings provided to the British government by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group. The group compared mortality rates in people infected with new and old versions of the virus.
The findings were based on two papers presented Jan. 15 that showed an increased case fatality rate across age groups.
But the summary also emphasized that the hospital case fatality rate associated with B.1.1.7 has not increased, and “the absolute risk of death per infection remains low.”