Ohio has an end goal to lift restrictions
Dewine sets benchmark to drop orders
Ohio’s coronavirus restrictions – including a statewide mask mandate – could be repealed once new cases drop below a certain rate, Gov. Mike Dewine announced Thursday night.
Dewine said once new cases drop to 50 per 100,000 residents over two weeks, all health orders will be removed. Here’s what we know about when Ohio might lift health orders.
Where did the goal number for Ohio COVID-19 cases come from?
The calculation is called an “incidence rate,” and it’s been used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to varying degrees throughout the pandemic.
The rate gives a good picture of where the state is “real-time,” while indicators such as hospitalization and death rates lag by several weeks or more, said Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, Ohio’s chief medical officer.
“(Ohioans) have wanted a mile marker, something that could be a reasonable signal to them that our vaccinations are having enough of an impact that mandatory restrictions are no longer necessary,” Vanderhoff told reporters Friday.
The state has been using the metric since July. It is one of the seven indicators on the state’s COVID-19 heat map. Dewine also began showing the two-week incidence rate map on Dec. 30. He’s shown the map once a week during a press conference. It included a statewide rate for the first time on Jan. 7.
When was the last time Ohio was at that COVID-19 case rate?
Dewine’s office couldn’t say on Thursday. But an analysis of Ohio Department of Health data by the USA Today Network Ohio shows it was likely before the mid-july surge in new cases. Vanderhoff confirmed it was during a two-week period in June.
The per capita calculation translates to about 5,845 new cases over two weeks, an average of 417 per day.
The rate is calculated using “onset date” rather than the date a case is reported and included in the state’s count and excludes inmates. Onset date could be the day a person first had symptoms, the day they took a coronavirus test, the day the test came back positive or the day their diagnosis was reported to the state. In order to find the exact date, you’d have to review the onset data available on that date and subtract inmate cases from those dates, numbers that are not available in that form.
The number includes “probable” cases, the majority of which are tied to a positive antigen test result. Vanderhoff said there is more confidence in antigen results than there was last spring but the definition of “probable” hasn’t changed since then.
Where can I see the Ohio coronavirus case rate?
The number has been released weekly since early January on a map of the state, which is located on the Ohio Public Health Advisory System page of the state’s coronavirus website.
The number is not part of the state’s main coronavirus dashboards. Vanderhoff said historical numbers will be soon available. The state is going to continue publishing the rate once a week instead of daily.
On Wednesday, the rate was 179 cases, down from 445 cases on Feb. 3 and 731 on Dec. 3.
What happens when Ohio hits the incidence rate benchmark?
Dewine said all public health orders, which includes the mask mandate and restrictions on restaurants, stores, schools and more, would be lifted once Ohio hits the 50 mark the first time.
Vanderhoff said the state would still issue guidelines and best practices, but they wouldn’t be mandatory.
Ohio could continue to ease restrictions, as it has done in recent weeks for entertainment venues and caterers, if the incidence rate continues to drop.
“As we continue to move along, we’ll look at opportunities to open up our lives more and more,” Vanderhoff said.
When is Ohio going to get there?
“I don’t know,” Vanderhoff said Friday.
In mid-june, Ohio was testing about half as many people as it is now. But we didn’t have the vaccine then. Vanderhoff said the metric will show how vaccine deployment is working.
Dr. Maria Gallo, a professor of epidemiology at Ohio State University, said it is difficult to estimate when Ohio may reach the standard.
Changes in Ohioans’ behavior, such as complacency and failing to wear masks and gathering in groups as the weather warns, could stall the decrease in cases, particularly if more-contagious variants begin infecting more people, she said.
“The other unknown is the degree to which people will agree to be vaccinated. Even if enough vaccines are available for everyone by the end of May, we don’t know the extent to which people will agree to be vaccinated,” Gallo said.
“(Ohioans) have wanted a mile marker, something that could be a reasonable signal to them that our vaccinations are having enough of an impact that mandatory restrictions are no longer necessary.” Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff Ohio’s chief medical officer
What happens if Ohio goes above the benchmark?
Vanderhoff said the state might have to enact restrictions again if Ohio trends the wrong way.
Is this the best benchmark for ending COVID-19 restrictions?
Asked about the science behind the benchmark set by the state, Gallo said, “The level of 50 per 100,000 is somewhat arbitrary. Also, it would be better to see a low rate for a longer period of time than two weeks.”
The CDC used a two-week incidence number to measure spread early on in the pandemic but has since shifted to a seven-day calculation for visualizing spread.
Vanderhoff said Ohio has been using a two-week interval for a long time and that’s a “more sensible approach” at the state level. Vanderhoff doesn’t think fluctuations in testing will affect the rate too much, noting that Ohio’s positivity rate has gone down even as the number of tests has stayed the same or declined.
Texas, Mississippi and Connecticut announced plans to roll back several restrictions this week. All have weekly case rates higher than Ohio’s – about 171 in Texas, 112 in Mississippi and 139 in Connecticut compared to Ohio’s 108 in the past seven days. Connecticut’s governor kept the state’s mask requirement in place while increasing capacity elsewhere.
Dewine previously used current hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients to roll back the state’s overnight curfew. The curfew was eliminated Feb. 11 after more than seven days below 2,500 hospitalizations.
Reporter Randy Ludlow contributed reporting.