Challengers for Dewine, Senate seat line up quickly
The field of announced candidates to succeed retiring Sen. Robert Portman, a suburban Cincinnati Republican, keeps growing, with potential candidates including Upper Arlington Republican Steve Stivers, a U.S. House member since 2010.
Meanwhile, as of now, Republican Gov. Mike Dewine, given Ohio politics and history, will likely succeed himself, though there is no shortage of ifs, ands and buts.
The last time Ohioans refused to reelect a Republican governor was in 1958, when Ohio fat cats' Right to Work (for Less) ballot issue unseated thengov. C. William O'neill. Meanwhile, over the almost 64 years since then, Ohioans denied second terms to Democratic Govs. Michael V. Disalle (1962); John J. Gilligan (1974); and Ted Strickland (2010).
Sure, in 2022, much will hinge on whom Democrats field against Dewine. At this writing, it appears that Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, likely will challenge Dewine's reelection. In 2018, Whaley sought that year's Democratic nomination but dropped out and backed the party's eventual nominee, former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray. That November, Dewine drew 50.4% of the statewide vote to Cordray's 47%, with other candidates sharing the remainder.
Dewine has said he expects to be challenged for re-nomination in 2022's statewide GOP primary election – but said he expects to win it. An oftenmentioned – but so far unannounced – Dewine primary challenger could be former U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, a Wadsworth Republican who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Cleveland Democrat, in 2018. Renacci drew 47% of 2018's statewide vote to Brown's 53%.
Some conservatives trash Dewine for actions he has taken to save lives of Ohioans amid the COVID-19 pandemic. But those Republicans likely wouldn't vote for a Democrat. Besides, Dewine is a gold-standard officeholder among anti-abortion Ohioans, and many Republicans are Right to Life.
As of last week, four Republicans had said they will compete to succeed Portman. In alphabetical order: Cleveland investment banker Mike Gibbons; ex-state Treasurer Josh Mandel, a Greater Clevelander who evidently thinks there's no such thing as bad publicity; Westlake auto dealer and tech investor Bernie Moreno; and former Republican State Chair Jane Timken, an in-law of the Canton bearings-and-steel dynasty.
The Timkens have slid to the right since the days when H.H. Timken Sr., great-grandfather of Jane Timken's husband, was a pillar of Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose party.
The Democrats' possible consensus candidate for Portman's Senate seat is U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a suburban Warren Democrat. His Youngstown-warrenparts-of-akron district likely will vanish when Ohio redraws congressional districts this year or in 2022. For 203 days in 2019, Ryan ran for president.
Some Ohio Democrats, especially in heavily Catholic Greater Cleveland and the Cincinnati-dayton region, oppose abortion. Ryan, reared Catholic, opposed abortion when first elected to Congress in 2002. But he announced in 2015 he favored a woman's right to choose abortion. (In fairness, it is sometimes said there is only one always-pro-life Democrat left in the U.S. House: Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, whose district extends San Antonio south to the Rio Grande.)
Stivers, 56, the Columbus-area Republican considering a run for Portman's seat, grew up in Adams County, east of Cincinnati, along the Ohio River. He is an Ohio State graduate and a major general in the Ohio National Guard, and was elected to Congress in 2010 after serving in the state Senate.
Earlier this month, Cleveland.com's Andrew J. Tobias reported that Stivers “(had) raised almost $1.4 million so far in 2021 … (giving) him $2.4 million in total campaign cash on hand, and puts him well on track with other Ohio Republicans who are considering a run for U.S. Senate (in 2022).”
Stivers, whose hometown is roughly 55 miles from Cincinnati, arguably would be a strong statewide contender for the Republicans' U.S Senate nomination, especially in a multi-candidate primary whose four announced candidates are all from Northeast Ohio.
The last time a Northeast Ohio Republican represented Ohio in the U.S. Senate was from 1941 through mid-1945 (former Cleveland Mayor Harold H. Burton, appointed a Supreme Court justice by Harry Truman).
Since 1970, Ohio's population center has drifted southwest, toward Columbus. That's why a statewide candidate from that region – and Stivers is – might have an advantage in Election 2022.
Thomas Suddes is a former legislative reporter with The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University.
tsuddes@gmail.com