Playoff expert: Bad game for Oregon

I had lunch last weekend with the great Jerry Palm. He’s not only a former Big Ten band member, and a state math champion in 1981 as a high schooler in Illinois, but he’s one of the pioneers of an era of analytics, data and formulas in college sports.

Palm, 57, lives in Northwest Indiana and works for CBS Sports where he sifts through numbers and projects NCAA Tournament brackets and College Football Playoff rankings. Before that he pretty much reverse engineered and solved the secretive BCS formula. In his old life, Palm worked as a computer programmer and created College RPI as a hobby that he turned into a full-time sports-world job in 2011.

Palm said some interesting things between bites of the tenderloin he ordered at an Irish Pub. Among them: “There’s just no way in the world Oregon should be playing Ohio State in a nonconference game.”

Also he said, “This game makes zero sense for the Ducks.”

Also Palm said this: “It’s great for us fans and media, but Oregon doesn’t need this game to make the playoff. It just needs to go undefeated in non-conference and go 9-0 in the Pac-12.”

The Ducks will travel to Columbus this weekend, where they’ll play the Buckeyes on Saturday. Palm appreciates Oregon’s ambition but doesn’t like the game for the Ducks. Too much risk. Especially if the Ducks get blown off the field by 14-plus in front of the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens liked the game when he scheduled it. That Mullens is formerly the chair of the playoff selection committee is interesting because he’s had a front-row seat for the back-room discussions. He scheduled Auburn in the season opener two seasons ago. He locked down Georgia to open next season. But beginning in 2023, it’s interesting to note that Oregon starts playing a series of non-conference games that appear to better fit the

Palm mode.

2023 - Portland State, at Texas Tech, Hawaii

2024 - Idaho, at Hawaii, Texas Tech, Boise State

2025 - Montana State, Oklahoma State, at Boise State

2026 - Boise State, at Oklahoma State, Portland State

2027 - at Baylor, Utah State, TBD 2028 - North Dakota State, Baylor, at Utah State

It’s obvious the Ducks had a shift of scheduling philosophy.

“That seems more sensible," Plam said. "Not pillow-soft but winnable games. Undefeated needs to be the goal.”

The way Mullens changed the scheduling tells us he learned some things during his term on the playoff committee. He knows that any Power Five Conference program that goes undefeated and wins the conference title game is in.

Dave Bartoo, an analytics expert known as the College Football Matrix, said under the current four-team playoff what’s great for television and fans is counter to what’s great for the contending programs.

“If we expand to eight or 12 in the playoff this is absolutely a game you play. It might be the difference between being the No. 8-seed and not getting in,” he said. “Four teams? You’re just trying to go 13-0 in any way shape or form. Nobody remembers a bad schedule.

“If you go back to Clemson’s national title runs in the last 10 years and you look at who they played before they got in the playoff — it’s trash.”

If the Ducks beat Ohio State, it may live as the greatest non-conference, regular-season victory in football program history. Great matchup for fans on both sides. Wonderful for media, who enjoyed months of build-up for this game.

Said Palm: “Oregon didn’t need this game to make the four-team playoff.”