EPA: More deaths to come as heat rises
Five Ohio cities studied, including Columbus
As temperatures continue to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, a new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report drafted by career scientists shares some grim news: Expect more deaths.
The number of deaths found in the EPA analysis correlates to how many degrees of warming the planet will experience. And those affected will disproportionately be from vulnerable groups including people in poverty, very young and elderly people, those with pre-existing health conditions and people of color.
Of the 49 cities in the study, five were in Ohio: Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Youngstown and Canton. But that doesn’t mean the cities are islands.
“The use of these 49 cities does not mean that individuals in other areas are not affected by extreme temperature mortality, but rather that the data are not available for other locations to be included,” according to the report.
When there are extremes in temperatures, whether it’s hotter than average in the summer or colder than average in the winter, the human body has a harder time regulating temperature.
“All Americans are going to be impacted by climate change. We know now based on this set of analyses that
some are going to be impacted more than others,” said Jeremy Martinich, climate scientist in EPA’S Office of Air and Radiation. “And some of those highest impacts fall disproportionately on those that are least able to cope, to plan and adapt to those effects.”
Temperatures are rising because of an accumulation of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide emissions. One of the most prevalent greenhouse gases is carbon. Carbon emissions mainly come from burning fossil fuels in vehicles and factories, but also can be worsened by expanding development and deforestation.
How much warmer is Ohio getting?
Ohio will warm another 1.7 to 2.8 degrees Celsius (3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century compared to 1976-2005, if increases in greenhouse gas emissions are limited. But if emissions continue to increase at the current pace, average temperatures could increase 2.2 to 3.3 degrees Celsius (4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the Fourth National Climate Assessment from the Washington, D.c.-based U.S. Global Change Research Program.
If there is a 3-degree Celsius (or a 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in temperatures, it means more deaths. In Columbus, there could be as many as 41 more deaths each year, the report says.
If warming reaches 5 degrees Celsius (or 9 degrees Fahrenheit), there could be an additional 89 deaths due to extreme temperatures in Columbus each year.
For 3 degrees Celsius of warming, there will be as much as 21 more deaths each year in Cleveland, with 20 more deaths each year in Cincinnati, 5 more deaths each year in Canton per year and 5 deaths per year in Youngstown.
Why are some groups more vulnerable than others?
People who are on medications for cerebral, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are more susceptible to heatrelated deaths because those drugs change their bodies’ ability to regulate heat.
Elderly people, defined as those 65 or older, can undergo cardiac strain in reaction to hotter temperatures. Babies and young children sweat less, which means their bodies have a harder time cooling off.
Chuck Gehring, CEO of Lifecare Alliance, said the nonprofit has been coordinating the collection and distribution of fans for the past 20 years. On average, 4,000 fans are given out each year to those in need.
The needs are changing and increasing. It’s not just the elderly who need fans.
“We’ve encountered a number of people that are the COVID long-termers, or just coming out of a hospital with COVID, but they still have respiratory issues. If they don’t have air conditioning, on a very hot day, they’re in trouble,”
Gehring says. “The other thing we’ve seen especially in the last five years or so, is we’ve gotten calls for fans from younger people, because their children have some sort of asthma or breathing situation.”
The problem is compounded when people have multiple risk factors.
For example, there’s also a correlation between people who live in urban areas, live in poverty and are people of color. They are more likely to be in social isolation and have outdoor jobs in extreme temperatures.
Studies have found that Black and African American individuals had higher rates of both heat- and cold-related mortality than any other race or ethnicity group. They experience heat-stress mortality at a rate 2.5 times higher than non-hispanic whites, according to the EPA report.
Air conditioning can help lower risk, however, not everyone has access to it. They face barriers including income— some who have air conditioning can’t afford the electric bills, and others can’t afford rent in places where landlords have installed central air.
“There’s no question: It’s hotter. And the need has gone up tremendously,” Gehring said. “There’s many people in our community who do not have air conditioning because it’s an older home and it was never built with air conditioning. Air conditioning just doesn’t exist as much here. There’s a big group of people, though, who cannot afford to turn air conditioning on even if they have it. Air conditioning is more expensive. It’s a higher bill than heat. So they keep their air conditioning off and that creates a hot box. It’s horrendous situation.”
Is Columbus warmer than it used to be in the past?
“One of the things the study conveys is that it matters, how much warming we absorb and how fast we absorb it,” said Joseph Goffman, principal deputy assistant administrator, Office of Air and Radiation at the U.S. EPA. “Because in answering the question, ‘What should communities do?’ the answer changes with how much time we have to anticipate these changes, build resilient infrastructure, and also change the priorities of where we invest.”
Columbus temperatures are heating up faster than both the national and global averages, with the greatest warming occurring during the spring and at night with records getting set for higher low temperatures, according to the Ohio State University’s Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center.
Scientists say Ohio’s weather eventually will be similar to weather in Southern states, with summers mimicking those in Arkansas and Louisiana and winters that could resemble ones in Virginia and North Carolina.
From 1948 to 2020, the top 10 warmest years at the weather station in Columbus
have occurred since 1991, with four of those years occurring in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2020.
With warming temperatures trending, the fear is that cities won’t have time to adapt in time.
“For example, the building environment that people live in probably needs to change in places like Ohio, to anticipate warmer temperatures,” Goffman said. “If the rate of change is rapid, we’re just not going to have either the time to do it effectively, or perhaps more importantly, the time to do it cost effectively.”
What is Columbus doing to combat climate change?
The approach to tackle the issue has to be two-pronged, meaning not only do emissions have to be reduced, but communities have to take steps to adapt.
“We know that in the absence of action, increasingly hotter days and stronger, more frequent rain events in Columbus will disproportionately have negative impact on our communities of color,” said Erin Beck, assistant director of Sustainable Columbus, the city’s environmental initiative, in a statement.
Mayor Andrew Ginther has pledged the city will be carbon neutral by 2050 in alignment with the Paris Accord to limit global temperature rise, she said.
“Our vulnerable populations are already being impacted by climate change, which is why we aren’t waiting to act,” she said.
The city is in the process of finalizing its Climate Action Plan, which will provide a road map on how to meet emissions reduction goals to become carbon neutral as well as address resources, infrastructure and resiliency to adapt to a changing climate. The plan is expected to be finalized this fall.
Even public buildings, including 20 buildings in Columbus City Schools, were without air conditioning as the school year began, making students stay at home.
“As we go forward, it’s clear Columbus and other cities in Ohio need more air conditioning installed,” Gehring said. “There’s got to be a way to help some of the low-income residents, of which there are thousands, pay for their air conditioning.”
It’s hard to know how many heat deaths are actually taking place in Greater Columbus each year.
While the Franklin County Coroner’s Office tracks deaths for homicides, overdoses and suicides, no data is kept on extreme temperature deaths.
Gehring tracks deaths by looking at news coverage. To his knowledge there hasn’t been one in Franklin County in recent years due to extreme heat. But seeing the data from the latest EPA report, he knows that trend likely won’t last.
“The deaths will go up across the country and here. If we go up by 5 degrees, you’re going to have a lot more people die,” he said. “There’s no question. The need will just be so much greater.”
Anyone interested in donating to Lifecare Alliance can visit lifecarealliance.org/donate/ bharvilla@dispatch.com @Beth_harvilla