Will new rules curb gerrymandering?
COLUMBUS – A fight over which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives is being waged state-bystate, and Ohio is up next.
Every 10 years, 435 House districts are redrawn by lawmakers, leaders or panels in each of the 50 states. Because House seats are doled out by population, some states gain representatives – Texas will have two more, for example – while others lose them.
Ohio will lose a seat this round, dropping to 15 representatives.
Democrats hold a narrow majority over Republicans in the current House. But Republicans control mapmaking in more states this year, leaving them optimistic about taking control of the chamber.
What does that mean for Ohio?
Republicans currently hold 12 of the state's 16 seats. It's difficult to see how they could add a GOP seat while losing a district and abiding by voter-approved changes to the Ohio Constitution.
"It depends upon the extent to which there really is respect for the notion of fairness," said Richard Gunther, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University, who helped craft Ohio's anti-gerrymandering language.
Gunther said a fair map, one that matches the statewide voting preferences of voters, would give Republicans an 8-7 advantage.
But Republicans control each step of Ohio's congressional redistricting process and recently approved Statehouse maps that give the GOP a veto-proof majority. Here's a rundown of what you can expect:
Who holds the pen?
Maps for the Ohio House and Senate were drawn exclusively by the sevenmember Ohio Redistricting Commission, which includes four legislative leaders and three statewide officials.
Ohio lawmakers could have even more power over congressional districts than they did over Statehouse ones. Changes to the Ohio Constitution gave them the first shot at drawing a map that lasts for 10 years, but they missed their Thursday deadline to do so.
That means the commission takes over. Members have until Oct. 31 to pass a map backed by at least four members and both Democrats.
If that doesn't happen, Ohio lawmakers have until Nov. 30 to pass a congressional district map. The map will last for 10 years if 60% of lawmakers and 33% of Democrats support it. If not, the map will last for four years.
Any map passed by the Ohio Legislature could be vetoed by GOP Gov. Mike Dewine, overridden by the Ohio Legislature or put before voters via a referendum. Those options aren't on the table if the commission approves the map.
What are the rules?
Voter-approved changes to the Ohio Constitution set on eliminating the wonky snake- and duck-shaped districts of the current congressional map by limiting how many counties can be divided: 18 counties can be split once and five can be divided twice.
Gunther said that's not difficult to do, even in a gerrymandered map.
Another change would require one whole county in each district, and that could deter unfair maps, he said.
Cleveland and Cincinnati must be kept whole because of their populations, a rule that could secure a Democratic-leaning district in Cincinnati. In 2020, 57% of Hamilton County voters backed President Joe Biden, but the county currently includes two Republican-leaning districts.
Mapmakers had more wiggle room on the population of Ohio House and Senate districts, allowing for a 5% deviation. For congressional districts, mapmakers must be much more precise.
In 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that congressional districts do not need to have the same number of people if small variations help achieve other redistricting requirements.
West Virginia's map was ruled constitutional even though it had a variation of 0.79%. Popular redistricting resource, Dave's Redistricting App, uses a 0.75% threshold for measuring maps uploaded onto its website.
Who influences mapmakers?
A decade ago, then-u.s. House Speaker John Boehner loomed large over the congressional redistricting process. Boehner and his staff made numerous, detailed requests of Ohio lawmakers drawing the map.
Boehner's aide was averaging a request a day, including ones as detailed as drawing Canton-based Timken Co. into a different district, the Associated Press wrote in 2011.
"Team Boehner was really in there with a lot of details and requests, and I don't think it will be like that this time," said Catherine Turcer, executive director of good government nonprofit Common Cause Ohio and a longtime redistricting reform advocate.
Boehner, a Republican from West Chester Township in Butler County, resigned in 2015, and Ohio's current congressional delegation wields significantly less power.
Several longtime GOP lawmakers have left in recent years, including former Reps. Pat Tiberi and Steve Stivers. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, R-rocky River, recently announced he would not run for reelection in 2022 after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.
That doesn't mean national forces won't be involved. Keep an eye on the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, led by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, and the National Republican Redistricting Trust, led by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Both influence congressional redistricting across the nation.
What is fair?
The fight over Ohio Statehouse maps centered on whether the end result, which would give Republicans a vetoproof majority, aligned with Ohioans' statewide voting preferences.
Republicans justified the maps by saying Ohioans favored GOP candidates between 54% and 81% of the time. The figures match the percentage of votes won by GOP candidates in recent statewide elections and the percentage of statewide races won by Republicans, respectively.
Three lawsuits accuse the Ohio Redistricting Commission of disregarding the wishes of Ohio voters in favor of gerrymandered maps. The Ohio Supreme Court will decide whether the commissions' maps pass constitutional muster.
Ohio won't face that same debate over congressional districts because mapmakers do not need to consider whether maps match statewide voting preferences, often called "representational fairness."
Here's why: Ohio's redistricting reforms were crafted by state lawmakers then approved by voters in 2015 and 2018. Both were negotiated under the threat of ballot initiatives from voting rights groups.
"We all need to own that both of the reforms were a compromise, but the congressional redistricting reform compromise was incredibly hard to get to," Turcer said. "The majority was distinctly not interested in representational fairness."
So that language doesn't appear in the congressional redistricting rules.
Instead, the Ohio Constitution includes two backstops against gerrymandered maps. For a map to last 10 years, both Democrats and Republicans must support it.
If Republicans approve a map without Democratic support, the map cannot unduly favor a political party or its incumbents. Lawmakers must explain in a written statement how they met that requirement.
"The rules are not perfect," Turcer conceded. "But they should rein in some of the worst aspects of gerrymandering as long as the lawmakers actually follow what's in the Ohio Constitution."
Jessie Balmert is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Akron Beacon Journal, Cincinnati Enquirer, Columbus Dispatch and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.