In picking Belmont, possibilities abound
Here at the Dispatch’s horse-racing desk, we’re usually semi-reliable. We are. Our favorite handicappers — former Dispatch racing editor Scott “Dutch” Davis and former Hartford Courant racing editor Bob “Clanchise” Clancy — tend to offer good advice during Triple Crown season. They think well.
Dutchie loved Lookin At Lee at 33-1 in 2017 and mixed him into exotic wagers. Lookin finished second to one of the favorites, and Dutchie cashed tickets. I fancied Oxbow in 2013, and Oxbow won the Preakness and finished second at the Belmont. And so forth, semi-reliably.
Last year, Clancy picked the Kentucky Derby winner: *Mandaloun, who finished second at 27-1, but won the roses after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Between the three of us, we picked the show horse at the Derby, the 1-2-3 horses at the Preakness Stakes and the place horse the Belmont. Semi-reliable.
As the 154th Belmont Stakes beckons Saturday, the Dispatch’s horseracing desk needs to rally.
This year, Dutchie’s horse at the Derby (White Abarrio) finished 16th and Clanchise’s horse (Charge It) was 17th. In a pared-down field at the Preakness, Dutchie’s horse (Epicenter) finished second and the ‘Chise and I picked Creative Minister, who finished third. Not up to our standards. I mean, those guys are supposed to know what they’re doing. I’ve threatened to strip Clancy of his nickname if we continue to spit the bit.
The Belmont is the “Test of the Champion” because, at 1 1/2 miles, it is longer than the Derby (1 1/4) and the Preakness (1 3/16). Its 3-year-old participants have never run such a
distance before and probably will never will again. Stamina and courage are hallmarks of Belmont winners. Breeding for distance also plays a role.
Belmont Park, aka “The Big Sandy” for its track composition, has wide stretches and sweeping turns. Jockeys who know the track — and, preferably, have experience in this third leg of the Triple Crown — are often critical to success. Rider errors get magnified here.
Although deep closers often draw action from myopic $2 bettors (like me), it is horses with tactical speed who regularly fare well at the Belmont.
The morning-line favorite is We the People (2-1 coming out of the No. 1 gate). He is the only speed in the eight-horse field. If the track is wet and he gets out to the lead, he could go wire-to-wire. He is the son of Constitution, whose sire was Tapit, who has produced four Belmont Stakes winners.
Mo Donegal (5-2, post No. 6), Rich Strike (7-2, No. 4) and Creative Minister (6-1, No. 5) are the other favorites. It's quite likely that Mo Donegal will be the top favorite by post time.
Rich Strike, a last-minute entry and the shocking winner at 81-1 at Churchill Downs, is the sentimental favorite. His connections want to prove his out-ofthe-clouds Derby victory was not a
fluke. But his connections have no experience at the Belmont Stakes.
Sonny Leon, three-time track champion at Mahoning Valley in Youngstown, had a masterful trip at the Derby. Yet, as talented as he is, his lack of track knowledge is a major disadvantage. I'm steering clear of America's darling. Dutchie is not.
“This is a mediocre Belmont field, but
there's still a $1.5 million purse up for grabs, and it looks like it could be an intriguing race,” Davis said. “We the People ran a monstrous Peter Pan at Belmont, and jockey Flavien Prat should be able to name his fractions on the lead. Who can come get him?
“I think Rich Strike has the best chance. Skipping the Preakness was probably a wise move, and he has been training very well. Mo Donegal is classy but a bit of a plodder, as is Barber Road. Something tells me that Rich Strike will nip We the People, with Mo Donegal and Barber Road showing up a little late.”
Generally speaking, the inside posts are where to be at the Belmont, but I'm tossing Skippylongstocking (20-1, No. 2) and the filly, Nest (8-1, No. 3). I'm also tossing Golden Glider (20-1, No. 7). If this is a mediocre field, these three are a notch below mediocre.
Clancy and I liked Creative Minister at the Preakness, and he finished third. While he is a closer, I don't fancy him progressing in his third start in five weeks. I could be wrong. Often, I am.
In order, Clancy likes Mo Donegal (with Irad Ortiz in the saddle), Barber Road (Joel Rosario) and Creative Minister (Brian Hernandez).
“I'm torn between those three horses,” Clancy said. “Mo is going to run. He's going to give you the effort — no question about it. Rich Strike had a great performance at the Derby, and it wasn't fluky. But one of these big boys (name jockeys) is going to win this race.”
I'm with Clancy on Mo Donegal. For me, it's a matter of maintaining a mount. I like Mo at the Derby, where he finished fifth after a terrible trip. He skipped the Preakness. I just pray he can stay closer to the pace than he did at the Derby. There's no guarantee there. Good luck. marace@dispatch.com