TREY EXPENSIVE
Grizzlies still need a 3-point shooter, but cost an issue when shopping for free-agent gunners
The Grizzlies resolved what had been their biggest offseason question to date when they reached an agreement Tuesday night with Tony Allen on a four-year deal worth $20 million. They also reached a three-year agreement with Jon Leuer for about $3 million. After this business, where do the Grizzlies stand? What can they afford to do to improve a team with championship aspirations?
WHERE THEY ARE
The Grizzlies have the following nine players under contract for next season (salary info from storytellerscontracts.com): Zach Randolph — $17,800,000 Marc Gasol — $14,860,523 Mike Conley — $8,200,001 Tayshaun Prince — $7,235,955 Ed Davis — $3,153,860 Jerryd Bayless — $3,135,000 Kosta Koufos — $3,000,000 Quincy Pondexter — $2,225,479 Tony Wroten — $1,160,040 Add to that list Allen, whose contract is likely structured to allow for as much first-year room as possible, meaning he’d start at about $4.5 million this season. Leuer’s contract will also be added, too, starting at just under $1 million. That’s 11 players. The team must also account for second-round pick Jamaal Franklin’s contract, likely to be in the neighborhood of $700,000. Add all of that up and it comes out to somewhere between $66 million and $67 million for those 12 players.
CAP/TAX PRIMER
Why is that number important? The NBA’s salary structure is a bit complicated, but here’s what you need to know: The salary cap is set at $58.5 million and the luxury tax threshold is set at $71.6 million. These numbers are derived through a formula involving the NBA’s revenue. In order to sign free agents from a different team, NBA teams must use either cap space — money available under that $58.5 million mark — or an exception.
In the Grizzlies’ case, they’re well over the salary cap number but under the luxury tax threshold. They can use what is termed a mid-level exception to sign a free agent should they desire. That mid-level exception is worth up to $5.15 million and can be used for up to a four-year deal. It can also be split up, meaning a team can use merely part of that exception — it’s not an all- or-nothing situation.
If the Grizzlies used that full MLE to sign a free agent, they would be very, very close to the luxury tax threshold, which would then kick in potential financial penalties for the franchise. The luxury tax system has been revamped by the NBA starting this season. The new penalties are listed here:
Tier 1: $ 1-$ 4,999,999 over the tax line means a $1.50 penalty for every $1 over the tax line
Tier 2: $ 5,000,000$9,999,999 over the tax line means a Tier 1 penalty, plus $1.75 penalty for every $1 above $5 million
Tier 3: $ 10,000,000$14,999,999 over the tax line over the tax line means a Tier 2 penalty, plus $2.50 for every $1 above $10 million
Tier 4: $ 15,000,000$19,999,999 over the tax line means a Tier 3 penalty, plus $3.25 for every $1 over $15 million
Tier 5: $20,000,000 and beyond over the tax line means Tier 4 penalty, plus $3.75 for every $1 above $20 million
The escalating nature of the tax is the reason a team like Brooklyn faces a tax bill of $80 million or more this season. It gets incredibly punitive very quickly, even at the low levels. If the Grizzlies were to be even $2 million over the tax line, they’d have to pay an additional $3 million in penalties. There are also accompanying limitations of trades and signings for taxpaying teams.
The Grizzlies would prefer to avoid that area, even temporarily, if they can help it. Bear in mind, though, that the tax level isn’t determined until the upcoming season’s trade deadline, meaning a team can temporarily enter the tax level, then make trades or moves to get back under that threshold.
TARGETS
The Grizzlies will reach the NBA’s roster minimum of 13 players with another signing. This is where the Grizzlies’ budgetary plans come into play. There are some targets who would require the full MLE but are unquestionably of a higher quality.
If they plan on using the full MLE to sign a shooter, a player like Kyle Korver would be perfect. Korver is a 6-7 wing player with good size, pretty solid defense, and, most notably, phenomenal shooting ability. Korver shot 46 percent from behind the 3-point line last year. He’d likely cost at least the full MLE but would be an enormous difference-maker and space creator for the Grizzlies. However, several reports on Wednesday night said that Korver will stay with the Atlanta Hawks, who will give him a four-year deal worth an estimated $24 million.
Jose Calderon might be another target of interest for the Grizzlies, depending on his price. Calderon has the advantage of being able to back up Mike Conley at the point and is a very good shooter, too. He shot 46 percent from the 3-point line last season, and after being traded to Detroit as part of the Rudy Gay three-team deal, shot 52 percent from deep with the Pistons. Calderon’s not as big as Korver and couldn’t play the three; he’s also not as good a defender. But he could shore up a position of need at backup point while providing high-level shooting. However, the Kings reportedly have interest in Calderon and the Pistons would like to bring him back, too.
Jarrett Jack falls into that category, too, especially after a fantastic postseason run with the Golden State Warriors. Jack’s the definition of a streaky shooter, but when he gets hot, he can devastate opponents. He is likely to command a high price, much like Korver or Calderon. Reportedly, Jack wants a deal starting at $7 million per season, which would price him out of any possible Grizzlies interest.
It’s more likely the Grizzlies aim a bit lower for their shooter. Likely lower-priced targets could include Dorell Wright, reportedly a big target for the Thunder now that they’ve lost Kevin Martin to free agency. Wright’s a 6-10 small forward who is a specialist shooter, pretty solid from deep and has plenty of size and length to get his shot off over any defenders. Carlos Delfino would make sense, too. The veteran is very much a 3-point gunner (two-thirds of his shots last year were threes) and can defend relatively well.
Matt Barnes is a rugged defender who can shoot from deep, although the vast majority of his career has been on the West Coast. Daequan Cook’s production has slipped, but he can space the floor.
Randy Foye has emerged as a surprisingly solid 3-point shooter; he shot a career-best 43 percent from deep last year. And Wayne Ellington? Could the Grizzlies bring him back? The Grizzlies could also consider even the likes of Daniel Gibson, Anthony Morrow or Alan Anderson.
There will be options available of varying quality for the Grizzlies, depending on how aggressive they want to be in pursuit of that scorer. Even if they choose to keep their powder dry, so to speak, and wait for the smoke to clear, there will likely be a few players that slip between the cracks and offer shooting possibilities at a reasonable value. Regardless of the timing, though, the Grizzlies cannot afford not to sign a shooter at all.