Weakened party identification puts GOP at a disadvantage
Gallup sees Democrats rising
ANALYSIS
Washington Post
The Gallup organization reported its latest findings on party identification last week, and the report contained good news for the Democrats and a flashing yellow for Republicans.
The Democrats “have regained an advantage” over the GOP in party affiliation, Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones wrote in an accompanying analysis. Republicans, he added, “have seemingly lost the momentum they had going into last fall’s elections.”
The current numbers don’t mean Republicans can’t win the White House in 2016. The Democrats’ advantage is not as large as at other points in the past, for example. But the findings add to a series of data points that underscore the challenges ahead for the GOP, a party trying to keep pace with a rapidly changing country.
The latest numbers essentially mark a reset that returns party affiliation to its modern historical norm. Democrats long have enjoyed the advantage over Republicans in Gallup’s measures.
In those few periods when the GOP drew even or slightly ahead (after Republicans took control of Congress in 1994 or after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001), the party has been unable to hold that ground for long.
Democratic Party affiliation no doubt has benefited by a modest rise in Obama’s approval ratings, which were weak through most of 2014 and have recovered somewhat this spring and summer. The stronger Obama’s approval ratings next year, the more likely it is that the Democrats will retain the White House for a third consecutive term.
This isn’t the first time Obama has enjoyed a confluence of good events and renewed energy, only to see it slip away. Such ebbs and flows have marked his presidency from the start and could pull him down from the high moment he is enjoying.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is widely popular among Democrats of all ideological stripes, even as she faces a challenge from the left for the nomination from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Still, she carries substantial baggage that could affect her prospects in a general election, if she is the party’s nominee.
Republicans must hope that they nominate a presidential candidate who the public sees as sharing its values and who embodies the future direction of the country. For now, however, the contest for the nomination offers potholes and pitfalls.
“Although Obama and the Republican majority in Congress remain a major focus of the political news coverage, attention is increasingly turning to the 2016 presidential campaign,” Jones’ analysis notes. “Here Democrats may be benefiting from having a well-known and relatively popular frontrunning candidate in Hillary Clinton, which paints a contrast to the large, fractured and generally less well-known field of Republican presidential candidates.”
The Republican field on paper is substantially better than it was four years ago. But at present, no one is capturing the interest or imagination of the voters.
The best known among the group is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. But his family name and resistance hobble him to another Bush presidency.