Primary race up in the air in Tenn.

Rubio rising, Clinton dominant

WASHINGTON— New Hampshire may be ground zero this week in the race for the White House, but three weeks from Tuesday, Tennessee voters will pick their parties’ nominees for president.

So far, Republicans in the state have yet to coalesce around a particular candidate.

“The state of things is very fluid but also very competitive,” said Brent Leatherwood, executive director of the Tennessee Republican Party.

Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are all competitive in the Volunteer State, and any one of them could emerge the GOP winner when Tennessee holds its presidential primary on March 1, according to political operatives and other experts from across the state.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to dominate despite a robust challenge from Bernie Sanders.

“Hillary has got good roots here, and I don’t know that Tennessee is quite ready for Bernie,” said Marcus Pohlmann, a political scientist at Rhodes College in Memphis.

Not much polling has been done on the state of the presidential race in Tennessee.

The most recent, released Jan. 28 by Middle Tennessee State University, showed Trump leading the GOP field with 32 percent, but 28 percent of Republicans still undecided. Cruz was favored by 16.5 percent, followed by Ben Carson with 6.6 percent and Rubio with 5.3 percent. Forty-seven percent of Democratic voters preferred

Clinton, while nearly 26 percent were undecided. Fifteen percent backed Sanders.

The poll was completed nearly two weeks before last Monday’s Iowa caucuses in which Cruz defeated Trump and Rubio made a solid third-place showing. Since then, national polls have shown Trump’s once-solid lead falling and Rubio’s numbers rising heading into Tuesday’s primaries in New Hampshire.

If Rubio does well in New Hampshire, the race could turn into a three-man contest between Trump, Cruz and Rubio by the time Tennessee voters make it to the polls. Early voting begins Wednesday in Tennessee.

“The Republicans in Tennessee do lean right of the midstream of the party,” Pohlmann said, so “if it comes down to a three-way race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz, which it could, then I would say there would be a slight advantage to Cruz.”

Rubio’s showing in Iowa could help him in Tennessee, but “I’m not convinced it helps him as much as people are saying it helps him,” said Anthony Nownes, a political scientist at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

“A lot of the narrative about how great he did comes from wishful thinking,” Nownes said. “A lot of Republicans privately — officeholders, Republican leaders, people that are called part of the Republican establishment — have been waiting for one person other than Trump or Cruz to assert themselves and show they have some staying power and be able to knock off one or both of those guys.”

Rubio is seen as that alternative as a result of Iowa, but he still came in third, and “I still think he has an uphill battle,” Nownes said.

While Clinton is regarded by many as the solid front-runner on the Democratic ticket, “we have Democrats all over the state that are enthusiastic about both candidates,” said Mary Mancini, chairwoman of the Tennessee Democratic Party. Sanders has risen in some polls after the Iowa caucuses, which he lost to Clinton by less than 1 percent. “Tennesseans and certainly the Democratic establishment in Tennessee is waking up to find out this is a horse race, and it’s a lot closer than anyone ever thought it would be,” said Matt Kuhn of Memphis, the chairman of Sanders’ campaign in Tennessee.

This coming week, Sanders’ volunteers plan to open offices in Memphis, Nashville and Knoxville and will conduct phone banks on the candidate’s behalf in anticipation of the start of early voting, Kuhn said.

Clinton is winning the money race in Tennessee. The former first lady and secretary of state has raised more money in the Volunteer State than any other candidate, Democrat or Republican.

Clinton raised $819,465 in Tennessee through the end of 2015, the most recent period for which fundraising reports are available. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was second with $763,085.

Bush was the top fundraiser in both the Knoxville and Memphis areas, collecting $191,425 in Knoxville and $70,125 in Memphis, according to the Federal Election Commission. By comparison, Clinton raised $44,650 in Knoxville and $69,544 in Memphis.

Statewide, Tennesseans have given $2.7 million to Republican presidential candidates and $1.02 million for Democrats.

Both parties say they expect several candidates to return to Tennessee before the state’s primary, although probably not to the extent as last year. Tennessee is one of 14 states and American Samoa that will hold primaries or caucuses on March 1, so candidates will have to cast a wider net in search of votes over the next three weeks.

“Senator Rubio, he’s one of those presidential campaigns who’s going to be very active in Tennessee,” Leatherwood said. “We’re seeing that on the ground.”

Rubio spokeswoman Micah Johnson said she had no information about the candidate’s travel plans for the next three weeks. But volunteers and delegates in Tennessee are working to connect with voters and lay the groundwork for early voting and continue to work to recruit more supporters each day, she said.