How Russia could spark a U.S. electoral disaster
Washington Post
“U.S. investigates potential covert Russian plan to disrupt November elections.” To those unused to this kind of story, I can imagine that recent Washington Post headline seemed strange. In fact, the scenario under investigation has already occurred, in whole or in part, in other countries. Because most Americans haven’t seen this kind of game played before, I think the scenario needs to be fully spelled out. Based on Russia’s past tactics in other countries, assuming it acts more or less the same way it acts elsewhere, here’s what could happen in the coming weeks:
1) Trump, who is advised by several people with Russian links, will repeat and strengthen his “the election is rigged” narrative. The “polls are lying,” the “real” people aren’t being counted, the corrupt elites/ Clinton clan/mainstream media are colluding to prevent him from taking office. Trump will continue to associate himself with Brexit - a vote that pollsters really did get wrong - and with Nigel Farage, the far-right British politician who now promotes Trump.
2) Russia will continue to distribute and publish the material its hackers have obtained from attacks on the Democratic National Committee, George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, former NATO supreme commander Gen. Philip Breedlove and probably others. The point will be to discredit not just Hillary Clinton but also the U.S. democratic process and, again, the “elite” who supposedly run it. As we have learned in multiple countries, even benign private conversations and emails can, when published in a newspaper, suddenly look sinister. Almost any leak of anything is damaging.
3) On or before Election Day, Russian hackers will seek to hack the U.S. voting system. We know this is possible: Hackers have already targeted voter registration systems in Illinois and Arizona, and the FBI has informed Arizona officials that it suspects Russian hacking teams. Possible breaches are being investigated in several other states.
4) The Russians attempt to throw the election. They might try to get Trump elected. Alternatively — and this would, of course, be even more devastating — they might try to rig the election for Clinton, perhaps leaving a trail of evidence designed to connect the rigging operation to her campaign.
5) Once revealed, the result will be media hysteria, hearings, legal challenges, mass rallies, a constitutional crisis — followed by confusion, chaos and an undermining of the office of the presidency. Trump might emerge from the process as president after all. He will then go on, as promised at so many rallies, to “lock her up,” and of course to open a broad relation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the only foreign leader he seems to truly admire. Even if Clinton remains as president, at least a part of the country will assume she is illegitimate.
6) More likely, the hack will fail, or never even get off the ground. But what’s the downside in trying, or even in letting it be known that it was tried? Rumors of election fraud can create the same hysteria as real election fraud. Already, Russia’s propaganda wire service, sputniknews.com, has speculated that The Post’s article on Russian electoral manipulation is a clever plot to “to hide the actual efforts at electoral manipulation” and a “good cover for vote-rigging.”
7) And what’s the downside for Trump? If he wins, he wins. If he loses — then there are all kinds of ways to make money from the “election was rigged” narrative.
Whatever happens, the political process is undermined, social trust plummets further and the appeal of American democracy, at home and around the world, diminishes. And that, of course, is the point.