NAFTA, immigration on U.S. agenda for Mexico talks
MEXICO CITY -- U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly headed to Mexico for high-stakes talks Thursday with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and other top officials.
The visit comes at a frosty moment in U.S.-Mexico relations.
Last month, Pena Nieto canceled a scheduled visit to Washington after President Trump vowed on Twitter to make Mexico pay for construction of a massive border wall between the two nations. Then Trump threatened to send U.S. troops into Mexico to stop “bad hombres down there,” according to the Associated Press.
Since his inauguration Jan. 20, Trump has announced plans for a 20 percent tax on Mexican imports as well as mass deportations of immigrants living illegally in the U.S. — the majority of whom are Mexican.
Here are five things to watch regarding the talks:
The economy
Trump is convinced an unfair economic relationship causes the U.S. trade deficit with its southern neighbor. He has threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement and has proposed a tax on imports from Mexico and other countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit.
Experts say Mexico will do everything in its power to preserve NAFTA, and will call for the deal to be renegotiated, instead of completely scrapped.
On the issue of the proposed import tax, Mexico is likely to seek clarification on what goods the U.S. hopes to tax. Mexico could respond by taxing certain imports from the U.S., possibly sparking a trade war.
Mexico’s reaction
Many Mexicans are deeply offended by Trump, who has called immigrants drug dealers and rapists. This month, 20,000 people took to the street in Mexico City to protest his presidency.
Journalist Carmen Aristegui wrote in the Reforma newspaper that Pena Nieto, whose approval ratings are nearing the single digits, should firmly oppose a border wall.
“Instead of welcoming Tillerson and Kelly ... as if nothing had happened, the Pena administration should say there is no basis to negotiate on any topic at all, until the executive order to build this absurd and offensive wall is withdrawn and our countrymen are no longer criminalized or prosecuted,” Aristegui said.
On Tuesday, the Trump administration called for clearing immigration agents to target any of the 11 million people in the U.S. illegally for removal, instead of only those who have been convicted of a crime. That could affect more than 5 million Mexicans believed to be living without permission in the United States.
Mexican officials are likely to ask Kelly and Tillerson to assure that any deportations are carried out humanely and managed in a way that enables Mexico to absorb the deported individuals. In recent years, Mexico has cooperated closely with U.S. immigration authorities
Many believe Tillerson could be a moderating influence in the Trump administration.
A former energy executive, he understands the intricacies of international trade.
It may be that he will soothe nerves in Mexico, just as Vice President Mike Pence did this week during his visit to Europe, when he reassured European leaders that the Trump administration fully supports institutions such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization —despite earlier comments from Trump suggesting otherwise.
Experts say Mexico has little leverage in discussions with the United States.
One bargaining chip: Pena Nieto’s threat to withhold cooperation on immigration and security if Trump insists on changes to trade.
Mexico has become something of a firewall to Central American migration to the United States, deporting hundreds of thousands of Central Americans along its own southern border last year, even more than the U.S. did. Mexico could decide to stop its enforcement efforts.
Mexico could also stop cooperating with the United States on security issues, such as fighting drug cartels.