The Penny Hardaway saga: 5 things to know
Five things you should know about the Penny Hardaway saga:
Hardaway was always Plan A-Z.
There was never a candidate other than Hardaway. If not for the availability of Hardaway, it's not even clear Memphis would have fired Tubby Smith. In many situations, a university decides a coach has to go and then sets about finding the right replacement. That wasn't the case here. This was always thought of as a Smith-for-Hardaway swap. Indeed, the mass appeal of Hardaway — and the expected boost in ticket sales — is the only way the university could justify paying Smith nearly $10 million to go away.
The money part of the Hardaway deal is done.
Of course it's done. Memphis administrators decided to let go of Smith because the math didn’t add up, because the financial numbers weren’t working. That being so, they had to know what Smith was costing them in lost revenue, what Smith would cost them in a buyout, what Hardaway would likely bring in new contributions and ticket sales, and what Hardaway himself would cost in salary.
I’m certain there are contractual details yet to be worked out — Smith’s contract wasn’t signed until more than a year after he was hired — but the basic numbers had to have been
Hardaway expected to be named Memphis coach, see 1A
in place before Smith was let go.
The critics are right — and wrong.
Jay Bilas tweeted that Memphis should be "embarrassed" because it fired Smith. Pat Forde wrote that hiring Hardaway will "likely be a costly mistake." My former colleague Mike DeCourcy called "Memphis' quick hook" of Tubby Smith a "colossal fail." To the extent that the critics are suggesting the decision to hire Smith in the first place was a colossal fail — and that's the essence of DeCourcy's argument — they are absolutely correct. But there's certainly nothing embarrassing about the decision to pull the plug on a coach who is costing the program millions of dollars a year.
It would have been easier not to pull the plug, certainly, because nobody would have criticized the decision to fire Smith after a third consecutive mediocre year. Indeed, by firing Smith after two years, university administrators highlighted just how misguided their decision to hire Smith had been. But they were willing to take that heat because they understood the extent of the financial damage being done.
As for Forde's contention — that Hardaway will fail as head coach — that's certainly the safer bet. Most coaches ultimately fail at their jobs. Hardaway comes with some real risk. But given the current financial realities, given the disconnect between the program and the community, the Memphis administration concluded (correctly, in my judgment) that it's a risk the university has to take.
Memphis fans aren't more delusional than any other passionate fan base.
Yes, Memphis fans have outsized expectations. Just like the fans of most big-time college programs. The fans of every football program in the SEC West — with the possible exception of Alabama — have outsized expectations. It’s part of the deal.
But are Memphis basketball fans especially delusional? Nah.
Folks outside of Memphis like to say, “You’re not going to get a John Calipari run again.” Well, of course not. Memphians aren't stupid. That was a once-inlifetime thing. But the program has been to two Final Fours without Calipari. Before Calipari set foot on campus, Memphis went to the Sweet 16 roughly every four years. So is it too much to expect the team to be better than fifth in the American Athletic Conference, to crack the top 100 in the RPI and the top 150 at KenPom.com? Is it unrealistic for Memphis fans to be disappointed that the team wasn’t even on the NIT bubble?
Answer: Not at all.
The idea that Memphis shouldn't hire Hardaway because they'll have to fire him some day is dumb.
You've heard this, right? Memphis administrators shouldn’t hire Hardaway because he’s a civic icon and they’ll have to fire him some day. What a ridiculous theory.
Might Memphis have to fire Hardaway some day? Absolutely. Most coaches get fired. Larry Finch — who was even more beloved in Memphis than Hardaway — got fired. But did that ruin the Memphis program forever? No.
And is it fair to let your precious memories of Hardaway as a player stand in the way of Hardaway’s coaching ambitions? Most marriages end in divorce. Does that mean people should stop getting hitched? Every life ends in death. Does that mean you can’t have a blast along the way?
I have no idea how the Hardaway adventure will end. The odds are that it will end badly, because most of these things do.
But it’s short-sighted and self-defeating to let a theoretical bad ending deprive Hardaway of the chance to restore a Memphis program that he loves.